Yesterday was the third anniversary of Hong Kong's handover to Chinese rule. Far from celebrating the occasion, the city saw thousands take to the streets to voice their dissatisfaction with Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa (
Tung's popularity has dwindled, with more than 60 percent of Hong Kongers believing Tung's Special Administrative Region (SAR) government has done worse than Chris Patten under British rule. Despite all this, or rather because of it, Beijing orchestrated an elaborate campaign to bolster Tung's image.
At a meeting last week with 30-plus Hong Kong business tycoons, Chinese president Jiang Zemin (
In saying this, Jiang did not sound too different from an emperor addressing his vassals. The difference is that Beijing has adopted a "rule by business" policy for Hong Kong.
Despite its economic recovery earlier this year, Hong Kong's real-estate prices have fallen by half since 1997. Unemployment has risen to 5 percent and the low-income population has doubled. The gap between rich and poor is growing.
In early June, 6,000 school teachers staged a demonstration. Last week saw another street protest by several thousand middle-class people. The fact that even the normally aloof middle-class are taking to the streets is an indication of the growing public resentment. But no signs of government reform are in sight. The chief executive is elected by a committee hand-picked by Beijing. Less than half of the Legislative Council members are directly elected. According to Hong Kong's Basic Law, these undemocratic systems will not be reviewed and changed until 2007. For its part, the SAR government has made no promise whatever of reform.
On the surface, Hong Kong after the handover does not look so different. But the atmosphere has changed. Beijing casts his shadow everywhere, most obviously in the areas of judicial independence and freedom of speech.
Hong Kong should have been a communication bridge between Taiwan and China. Now it looks more like the filling in a sandwich. Hong Kong has no choice but to lean toward Beijing in the cross-strait dispute and the Hong Kong media often follow Beijing's directives in its coverage of Taiwan.
In fact, Hong Kong is Beijing's mortgage for "one country, two systems." China's relative restraint toward Hong Kong is due to the fact that it is supposed to be a showcase for "one country, two systems." If not for Taiwan, Beijing may not have been so nice to its SAR. And Beijing may not be interfering as hard in Hong Kong affairs as it wants to, but that does not reduce it's influence there.
The biggest paradox about "one country, two systems" is that Beijing must exercise its authoritarianism if it is to stop the tide of immigration from China into Hong Kong. Only by such despotic measures can Hong Kong stop the Chinese government from interfering in its affairs. Thus, it seems like Hong Kong's interests must rely on an undemocratic China.
It is also the only way to maintain the "one country, two systems" model, which will collapse with China's liberalization.
Hong Kong also stands to lose its advantages once Taiwan opens up the three direct links with China and enters the WTO. Wedged between Taiwan and China, Hong Kong is now unable to have its way on either front and there is no solution in sight.
Beijing's experiment with Hong Kong has served as a warning for Taiwanese: Never elect a chief executive who may toady to Beijing. In fact, Hong Kong could not possibly have allowed itself into the shackles of "one country, two systems" if it had ever had a choice.
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