Russia's acting-president Vladimir Putin won the recent Russian presidential election much to the surprise of no one.
Taiwan and Russia share many similarities in the process of their respective democratizations. The political development in both countries was spearheaded by a strong man -- Lee Teng-hui (
They both installed a system of direct and popular presidential elections, and greatly strengthened the power of the president. However, they also both had a premier, who was accountable to the congress, to lead the government.
These, together, gave birth to a semi-presidential system in both countries. Both Russia and Taiwan had a battling Congress and Cabinet, and a Congress that refused to accept the premier appointed by the president. However, both presidents' iron will won out in the end.
Both Taiwan and Russia had a rather powerful opposition party -- the DPP in Taiwan, and the Communist party in Russia. Both parties garnered 20 to 30 percent of the votes in each election. Each party strongly attacked the government's association with corruption and considered itself the righteous force in the society. In both countries, most of the voters, however, felt quite skeptical about having the opposition party take the reins of power.
There are of course differences between Taiwan and Russia. The Russian economy continued to decline during the Yeltsin era and suffered major blows during the financial crisis. On the other hand, Taiwan's economy continues to prosper and made it through the Asian financial crisis largely unscathed.
Yeltsin's health had remained in a state of deterioration, and his ability to continue the presidency faced wide-spread skepticism. Lee, howerver, remains in good health and no one has ever doubted his determination.
Putin, the successor groomed by Yeltsin, was an unknown intelligence head who officially came into the spotlight just seven months before the presidential election. Lee's successor Lien Chan (
Based on the above, the ruling party in Taiwan appeared to be in a far better condition than its Russian counterpart. Why did the successor hastily chosen by Yeltsin win the election in a breeze, whereas the KMT candidate Lien was defeated by the DPP candidate Chen Shui-bian (
The Russian opposition party, the Communist party, overindulged itself in the support of the fundamentalist faction, and neglected to win over the support of the moderate voters. Many Russians still hold nostalgic sentiment about the glory of being a superpower, and disagree with the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Economic reforms brought much social suffering. The Communist party, as a result, continues to hold the support of quite some voters. These people make the Communist party incapable of shedding off its extreme-leftist image, and unable to win the support of the moderate voters. On the other hand, Chen made significant strives to close in on the moderates and significantly reduced the skepticism of the voters.
Furthermore, the Yeltsin camp did not experience a break up the way the KMT was ripped apart between the Lien and James Soong (連戰) factions. The war with Chechnya and strategic resignation of Yeltsin saved the Russian ruling party from such a break up. Premier Putin's decision to take on a harsh stance about wiping out Chechnya's military capability after a series of terrorist acts in Moscow, allegedly done by pro-independence Chechnyan guerrillas, inspired nationalism in the Russian people and caused a rapid rise in Putin's popularity.
However, the war in Chechnya would have gone on too long for it to work in the ruling party's electoral favor had the polls been held in June 2000, as originally scheduled. Therefore, Yeltsin appropriately announced his resignation in December of last year, so that Putin, then premier, could become the acting president.
Under the Russian constitution, a new election must be held within three months under the circumstances. Therefore, the presidential election was held at the peak of Putin's popularity and glory. This meant that after Putin's party won a major victory at the congressional re-election, the opposition party virtually had no time to time rest before the hastily held presidential election. Naturally, Putin won the presidential election without a hitch.
The KMT was not without a chance to increase its popularity. The "special state-to-state model (
The resignation of Yeltsin made his support for Putin unquestionable. This was of course critical to Putin's victory. Although the KMT enjoyed the upper hand, its internal division and the opposition party's crossing over into a more moderate position caused the eventual change of government in Taiwan.
Wu Yu-shan is a professor of political science at National Taiwan University.
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