The Taiwan Security Enhance- ment Act (TSEA) was passed by the US House of Representatives 341 to 70 on February 1. The Act is now in the Senate awaiting action.
The Act aims to establish secure direct communication and improve military exchanges between the US and Taiwan militaries, ensure congressional oversight on the sale of defensive weapons to Taiwan and affirms that the ultimate status of Taiwan must be peacefully determined with the express consent of the people of Taiwan.
TSEA is an important bill because China is actively preparing for war against Taiwan by purchasing advanced Russian submarines, fighter aircraft and destroyers, deploying hundreds of ballistic missiles across the Taiwan Strait and conducting frequent joint force exercises.
The vast majority of the Taiwanese, on the other hand, are against absorption by the repressive Chinese regime, having struggled for decades to transform the KMT's despotic rule into a thriving democracy.
On February 21, China issued a white paper declaring its intention to attack Taiwan at a time of its choosing if Taipei does not start negotiating the terms of its surrender soon.
This ultimatum was reinforced on February 28 by a Liberation Army Daily warning of a nuclear attack on America if the US should decide to help defend Taiwan.
Then on March 8, President Bill Clinton sent a China trade bill to Congress seeking approval of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status for China.
If Congress fails to pass PNTR, China could retract the concessions it made last November in its WTO accession agreement with the US.
Thus, in return for Chinese tariff reductions to be phased in through 2005, Congress must forgo its annual review of China's Normal Trade Relations status, which enabled it to examine China's record on human rights, proliferation of nuclear and missile technology to rogue states and threats to Taiwan's security.
Both China and the Clinton administration are working hard to oppose TSEA in the Senate and to push PNTR through Congress.
As pointed out by House majority leader Dick Armey, both TSEA and PNTR actually serve the same purpose of promoting democracy.
Clinton argues that China's entry into WTO will encourage it to "play by international rule ..., to choose integration with the world ... and to respect human rights at home."
Protection of Taiwan's security and preservation of the freedom of the Taiwanese will provide China with a model to follow and encourage people inside China who yearn for democracy to keep up their struggle.
Absent a concomitant effort to steer China towards the path of democracy, a US policy concentrated essentially on trade alone could mean that 10 or 15 years hence the US will be facing an expansionist China with a much stronger economy and powerful, modern armed forces, posing ever greater threats to its neighbors and US national interests in a peaceful and stable Asia.
There is a cause and effect relationship between PNTR and TSEA.
China's state-owned enterprises are mostly unprofitable. Its state banks are insolvent by Western standards.
Tens of millions of people are unemployed, corruption and crime are rampant and there is widespread social unrest which makes the regime insecure.
If China is genuinely interested in honoring its WTO accession agreements and opening its markets, this means a serious exacerbation of political instability in the near term as the number of the unemployed explodes by leaps and bounds.
Beijing will be sorely tempted to launch an all-out invasion of Taiwan in order to divert the people's discontent.
The policy implication is obvious: PNTR and TSEA should both be adopted.
In view of China's threats, it will be most unwise for the US Senate to award China's growing belligerence with PNTR and at the same time fail to pass TSEA with a veto-proof majority.
The result is tantamount to an invitation to China to invade Taiwan, not immediately because China cannot be sure of victory right now, but most likely in three years time.
China also has the option of assaulting and occupying the offshore islands of Quemoy and Matsu before January 2001, when Clinton's term expires, to take advantage of his aversion to war casualties and the anticipated Clinton vacillation in the face of a determined PLA brandishing nuclear missiles.
It is up to the US Congress, and especially the Senate, to take the right steps now to avert a disastrous war in the Taiwan Strait -- a war which will alter the strategic landscape of East Asia in a way that is detrimental to US interests whatever the outcome.
The US Senate should hold off action on PNTR for China until its bilateral negotiation with the EU is complete, a final multilateral accession protocol is executed and above all, until TSEA is passed by the Senate with a veto-proof majority.
The House likewise should stall on PNTR until TSEA is passed by the Senate decisively. If the Senate cannot muster a two-thirds majority for TSEA, the best course is for Congress to completely drop PNTR. No action is better than a wrong action.
The new administration and a new Congress can then study the pros and cons of both TSEA and PNTR afresh next year, unencumbered by the missteps of the current administration.
Li Thian-hok is a board member at large of FAPA and Chair of the Diplomacy Committee, WUFI-USA.
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