On May 20 Chen Shui-bian
The party, however, will not last. There is much work that lies ahead for Chen and his administration. In fact, he will be in the unenviable position of trying to address the concerns of many different constituencies in the face of limited resources and the lack of a clear political mandate. Domestically, he will face many challenges, one of which will be continuing with the post-921 earthquake reconstruction effort.
Chen's administration must address these significant needs while the specter of a hostile KMT-controlled legislature looms in the background. More importantly, he does not have the luxury of relying on his party's resources to manage these issues, as was the case with his KMT predecessors.
In addition to these domestic and immediate challenges, the new president must not overlook the interests of his two key external constituencies -- ?Washington and Beijing.
How he handles relations with these two will be significant, not just for Taiwan, but for the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, and in the opinion of this writer, for the rest of the world. In these places, anxieties are high and people are curious.
In this regard, Chen's efforts in Washington will be particularly important. After all, this is the chief international battleground of words between Taipei and Beijing, and like it or not, Washington pulls a great deal of weight when it comes to cross-strait issues. Therefore, it is important for Chen to understand where Washington stands regarding Taiwan.
First, while the US Congress and the White House are clearly supportive of Taiwan's democratization efforts, the new government must not confuse this support to mean that the US will issue a blank check to Taiwan.
While Americans are generally sympathetic to Taiwan's causes, there are no polls that indicate their willingness to get involved in a military conflict in Asia.
Second, China remains the chief blip on Washington's Asia policy radar screen. Regardless of the rhetoric of some hawks, the economic potential of the Middle Kingdom will continue to play a significant role in Washington's policy calculations regarding China. In the cold and harsh world of realpolitik, Taiwan will never be a match for China when it comes to economic interests.
Third, since President Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972, history has shown that all US administrations, regardless of their party affiliations and campaign rhetoric, have ultimately adopted a "pro-China" platform. The likelihood of this trend being reversed anytime soon is slim.
The Congress will continue to serve as the main political platform on which Taiwan will air its views in Washington, and this is a platform that must continue to be nurtured and maintained with care.
What does this mean for Chen and his government? To put it simply, it means that he should not needlessly rock the boat. Changes in a domestic context may be necessary and positive. Changes in the diplomatic context, however, can backfire.
The most recent example of such abrupt change in US-Taiwan relations occurred when President Lee Teng-hui
In this regard, Chen and his advisors must work on developing relationships with the US Congress and the rest of the Washington policy community. After all, he remains an unknown entity to many and excluding his pro-independence label and mayoral credentials, most are unfamiliar with his decision-making styles and many of his views. Because he will not be able to visit Washington in the near future as he has done as the Taipei mayor, he must work especially hard to cultivate the relationship between his administration and the relevant individuals in Washington.
Finally, this leads to the critical decision regarding Chen's choice to represent his government in Washington. This individual must reflect some continuity with the past, but able to represent the new administration effectively.
More importantly, this individual must possess a great deal of knowledge about Washington and be flexible in his or her approach. Most importantly, he or she must be prepared for battle as the playing field on cross-strait relations in Washington has become much more level in recent years.
This would be a tall order for any diplomat, let alone one that will be essentially unofficial. Since 1980, only a few representatives from Taiwan have performed exceptionally well under this kind of circumstances.
It therefore behooves the new president to give a great deal of thought to this important decision before his inauguration.
Everyone is watching and waiting, and while Taiwan's future may not rest solely on this decision, the future of its relationship with the US will continue to depend greatly on this choice.
John Tai is a freelance writer based in Washington, DC.
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