Almost from the day after Chen Shui-bian's (
The first report of such activity was obviously suspect, coming as it did from New Party legislator Elmer Feng (
Both reports share a curious characteristic: they are based on information provided from the Beijing government. They cannot be traced either to Chen's camp or, for that matter, to any source in Taipei. Since Chinese officials are not known for loose lips, it is entirely possible that these reports are leaks planted as part of Beijing's tactical maneuvering to control events.
Nonetheless, let us suppose for the moment that there were such an envoy. In principle, this should be a positive development, raising the prospects for the reopening of dialogue between Taiwan and China and for putting a stop to the stream of bellicose rhetoric with which Beijing accompanied the presidential election. In short, it couldn't hurt.
But one point must be made clear: responsibility for improvement in cross-strait relations does not now lie with Chen. Both before and after the election, he -- and, we might add, all of his advisers and staff -- has said and done the right things. He has not made any one of the inflammatory or provocative statements which his opponents claimed he would make. On the contrary, he has very consistently expressed a desire for dialogue, and for peace in general.
It is now Beijing's turn to reciprocate. The "wait and see" attitude that the Chinese leadership has thus far adopted is not sufficient, except as an interim measure allowing China's decision-makers time to reassess and adjust their policy. Given the complexity of the different factions and interests in their government, it would be surprising if they were able to complete this process immediately. Therefore, it is appropriate for Chen to continue his own "wait and see" stance. He should maintain his hand outstretched, but it is up to Beijing to make the next move and shake it.
In the meantime, the primary source of instability across the Strait comes from a third source -- Washington. The US government's Taiwan policy is in as grave a state of disarray as China's (and for the same reason: the failure to plan for what they should have known was the inevitable ouster of the KMT). Also, as with China's, it will likely take some time to recalibrate.
Unfortunately, with the US's own presidential campaign heating up, China and Taiwan are turning into hot-button issues. The risk of sudden moves or rash statements is high and rising, as the two parties fight for electoral advantage. And the US Congress has ample opportunities to insert itself into the process, of which the debate over granting China permanent normal trade relations is the most pressing.
Chen has enough on his plate to form a new government, manage the transition and assert his control over an administration that has never known any master besides the KMT. In order to hold up his end of the cross-strait balance, he only needs to continue making the statements he has been making.
If Beijing eventually puts forward a realistic and properly thought-out proposal, and Washington does not cause any trouble, there is no reason why cross-strait relations cannot develop smoothly for the foreseeable future.
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