Several legislators recently held a news conference claiming that Beijing's intelligence forces cracked Taiwan's intelligence network in China after President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) claimed in 1996 that the Chinese missiles fired into the Taiwan Straits before the first presidential election lacked warheads.
The veracity of this claim is still in question, but President Lee's comments could not have been the deciding factor in the case. The truly disturbing development is that most people have focused on Lee's comments and failed to consider the poor state of Taiwan's intelligence forces.
China's 1996 missile tests targeted the waters outside of the Keelung and Kaohsiung harbors, not Taiwan itself or even its outlying islands. China did not intend to inflict actual damage to Taiwan, so of course it didn't arm its missiles with warheads. The firings were conducted to test the abilities of China's M-9 missiles and artillery forces, so the missiles were only outfitted with tracking devices.
Lee's assertion that the missiles were not armed was little more than common sense.
Government officials and the KMT played down the crisis, calling for calm -- yet the damage from an accidental hit of even a non-warhead missile would have been catastrophic in light of the high density of buildings and population here.
However, in order to calm public anxiety, the government did not hold any civic defense drills or practice evacuations. It was clear that Lee's comments such as "the missiles are empty" and "the rain will bring down China's missiles" were made to allay the public's fears.
We've become accustomed to seeing heads of state revealing classified national secrets in order to bolster their own policies. States may say that the methods they employ (including intelligence gathering) are in the national interest, but more often then not they mean in the service of those in office.
For instance, US President John F Kennedy was able to force the Soviet Union's Nikita Khrushchev to back down during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis only after he released classified photos in the UN of Soviet army bases in Cuba taken by U2 planes. The information showed the Soviets the damage that the U2 could do, however, and they subsequently developed the SA-2 missile to intercept the high-altitude plane, ending its spying career over the Soviet Union.
The truth is that intelligence agents are like soldiers on the field: expendable if those in power believe it is strategically expedient.
The true story behind the "Liu Lian-kun
If the rumors that Liu was unable to escape China because Taiwan authorities didn't issue him a visa in time are true, then the problem clearly lies with Taiwan's intelligence forces. Visas or passports given to protect individuals working undercover should be able to be issued outside of normal channels. It is normal procedure to bend or break the law to extend protection to these valuable people.
In light of Liu's importance and sensitivity, it is ludicrous that he had to wait for an officially-approved visa to enter Taiwan. If this is true, then Taiwan's national security is in serious trouble even with a military ally as strong as the US.
The gaping holes now apparent in Taiwan's intelligence system should be found and swiftly plugged. At this tense time, following China's white paper on Taiwan, this issue is paramount to upgrading Taiwan's military purchases.
Chang Kou-cheng is a military advisor to the DPP's chinese affairs department.
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