The flood of intimidating remarks from China designed to influence the presidential election has turned into a flood. Hardly a day goes by without bellicose remarks by authoritative Chinese, lightly sprinkled with milder comments -- such as those by Premier Zhu Rongji
On Saturday China's President Jiang Zemin
The comparison to 1996 is once again instructive. In the runup to that year's race, the Chinese also launched a campaign of intimidation, culminating in the now infamous missile tests. Then as now, the reasons for their discomfiture was the fact that Taiwan was electing its highest leader might just possibly increase the impression among Taiwanese -- and for that matter, the rest of the world -- that it was an independent country. Then as now, the focal point for China's anger was an action of Lee Teng-hui
So far, so alike. But here the parallels end. For if we examine the reactions of the candidates -- the primary targets -- we see a curious phenomenon. In 1996, Lee announced that he had "18 scenarios"
What a difference four years makes. Today's KMT line is strikingly opposite of Lee's. CEPD Chairman (and potential future Premier) Chiang Pin-kun
By contrast, the de facto standard-bearer of the New Party supporters, James Soong
So we have the peculiar spectacle that these two political groups have, at least in public, switched places on the vital issue of how to respond to China.
What will be the result? In 1996, China's bullying is thought to have been worth several points to Lee, putting him over the psychologically important 50 percent barrier. Such an effect would be much more significant now, when the election is so tight.
But who will be the beneficiary? This time, although the Chinese have continued to heap abuse on Lee, the barrage has been directed not at Lee's anointed successor Lien, but at Chen. It is clear where China thinks the successor's mantle belongs. And the KMT has shamefully responded not with resistance, but with encouragement, egging the Chinese on and amplifying the effect of their remarks on Taiwan's voters.
The complete reversal of stances cannot but leave the electorate perplexed, and must contribute to the persistence of large numbers of undecided voters. It also shows how precarious Taiwan's political system is.
The burden of responsibility now falls on the citizenry, to show themselves more mature than their leaders. They must resolutely refuse to play into China's manipulative hands.
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