Responding to China's white paper on Taiwan, President Bill Clinton said that the US remains opposed to the use of force to resolve the Taiwan question and he maintained that "differences between Beijing and Taipei must be solved in a peaceful manner and with the agreement of the people of Taiwan." Does this "democracy card" signify a major change in the US policy?
This statement by the US reasserts the democratic ideal that sovereignty rests with the people and cross-strait policy should be based on public support, ideas that enjoy great support within Taiwan.
In the past, US policy towards Taiwan was ambiguous regarding the people's self-determination, making the policy an obstacle and negation of Taiwan's democratic values.
The US promotes democracy throughout the globe, but has not given much support to the democratic basis of sovereignty in Taiwan compared to other issues (legislative reforms, direct presidential elections, etc). Thus the US has created an ambiguous atmosphere. On the one hand it is unwilling to disturb the "constructive" Sino-US relationship, yet it is also trying to avoid suddenly doing away with the strategic relationship that began in 1972.
At that time, the US was keen on improving relations with China and downplaying the backlash from the Vietnam War, and so it forged close ties with Beijing under the supervision of Henry Kissinger and other China specialists.
The origin of US policy towards China can be traced back to 1949 when Dean Acheson took a "hands-off" policy towards China, paving the way for Beijing to later draft its "one China" policy with the ultimate goal of reunification with Taiwan. US pressure on Taiwan since the severing of US-Taiwan relations has further convinced China of the appropriateness of its policy.
In the 1970s, Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) believed the US and China shared a common interest vis-a-vis the Soviet Union, thereby providing legitimacy for Beijing's "one China" policy -- which also fitted with China's long-term goal of undertaking reforms into the 1980s.
But contrary to its expectations, China had still not achieved reunification with Taiwan by the 1990s, even after its reforms were well under way. The Soviet Union disintegrated at this time and the international climate began to change, with US-Taiwan relations improving as Taiwan began to democratize.
Meanwhile, China's strategic importance dropped and it began to take the place of the Soviet Union as the new "red menace" for the US. Beijing was thus concerned about going back on its promise with the US to reunify Taiwan and also that the US would again "encircle" China through Taiwan.
This put a great deal of pressure on Beijing to realize its goal of reunification, leading it to step up pressure on Taiwan and purchase modern weaponry to increase its threat.
In order to maintain stability, the US was forced to increase the volume and level of military sales to Taiwan, but was afraid that Beijing would overreact. The US found it was unable to go along with Beijing's plan for reunification, while simultaneously being unable to publicly renounce the goal of reunification. The US finally settled on an ambiguous cross-strait policy to avoid angering China.
The US then announced the "three nos," a policy shift that worked against Taiwan's democratic goals. Over the long-term this encouraged China to follow its reunification policy, as is now seen in the white paper's remarks that "the resolute struggle of the government and people of China has forced Taiwan to change its [two-state policy]." This is also the reason that China feels a need to threaten Taiwan verbally and with military force.
In particular the white paper stresses that reunification must occur within a limited time frame. The remarks were made in anticipation of political changes expected after Taiwan's presidential election and also to reiterate Beijing's "one China" policy and its desire to quickly resolve the issue of Taiwan. Reunification has taken longer than Beijing had hoped and now wants to pressure the US to resolve the Taiwan issue.
If we understand the reasons behind China's need to push for its fantasy of reunification, then we will not be surprised by the content of the white paper.
The US response was clear this time, resolutely opposing the use of force to resolve the Taiwan issue and also stating that the issue must be resolved peacefully and with the agreement of the people of Taiwan.
This shifts Beijing's pressure for unification to the moral issue of public support in Taiwan, since the US has no reason or responsibility to lead the public in Taiwan towards reunification, thereby solving the time constraints set by Beijing.
The US reaction to the white paper was as swift as when China carried out military exercises after making verbal threats in 1996. The US has made careful military preparations before the upcoming elections to show it is resolved to protecting Taiwan, and has now made a statement in support of public opinion in Taiwan, hinting that China must postpone its expected date of reunification.
Moreover, there is growing support in the US for rejecting reunification. This will unavoidably anger Beijing and means that tension will remain in cross-strait relations for some time. In the long-term, however, we do not feel that China will be able to realize its goal of reunification in light of the international pressure and the China policies of the various presidential candidates.
We should firmly but tactfully inform Beijing of the impossibility of its desire and thereby put an end to the cross-strait dispute and brewing arms race.
We hope for a positive reaction from China -- one of the direct participants in cross-strait tensions -- ?but we also hope that the US revises the ambiguous cross-strait policy it has followed since 1972. We welcome the focus on public support found in the US' new policy, and look forward to its full implementation.
Lin Cho-shui is a DPP legislator.
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