Taiwan's presidential elections have never been simply two-way races between the KMT and the DPP. Rather they have always been three-way races between the KMT, DPP and the Chinese Communist Party: Beijing has always played a role in the elections. Although it has been unable to sway the election results so far, it has often played a key role in generating issues in the race.
Beijing's interference in both this election and the first one is a mere extension of its ongoing interference in Taiwan's affairs.
In 1996, the interference began right after President Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) June 1995 visit to the US. The missile tests during the election were simply moves to up the level of military threats.
This year, Beijing's interference began as early as July 1999, right after Lee declared the "special state-to-state" model. The white paper "One China Principle and the Taiwan Problem" was simply a summation of China's previous verbal attacks and condemnations.
The manner of Beijing's interference, however, has not been the same. In 1996, it was carried out by military threats, as an after-the-fact protest to the US' tactful consent to the elevation of Taiwan's political status. The move also strategically sought the US' alliance in preventing Taiwan's independence.
In comparison, the issuance of the white paper is a before-the-fact warning to the candidates to seriously consider cross-strait policy after the election. The message is: "Do not become so preoccupied with winning the election at all costs that you forget the bigger problems lying ahead."
Taiwan has always thought that Beijing's meddling was intended to sway the results of elections. Some people even thought that Beijing meddled for the purpose of keeping a certain candidate from winning the election and they use Lee's landslide victory in 1996 to demonstrate the foolishness of this effort. Such simple logic obviously misinterprets Beijing's meddling and underestimates Beijing's conniving strategy.
Actually, Beijing knew that Lee would win the 1996 election. A Xiamen University prediction of the percentage of votes that Lee would win actually came quite close. Beijing's focus was not to make Lee lose, but to urge the US to adjust its stance with respect to the cross-strait problem for the purpose of building an international consensus against Taiwan independence.
What surprised Beijing was not Lee's major victory, but that the US actually sent two carriers to back its position. This event rang alarm bells in Beijing over the US interest in Taiwan.
Therefore, Beijing's interference in this year's election is to ensure that a certain candidate loses -- but also to downgrade the effect of the "special state-to-state" model, and to issue a warning regarding the bottom line of post-election cross-strait relations.
Lien Chan
However, Beijing's switch from military threats to verbal assaults does not mean that it is a dog that no longer bites. It is worrisome that the wording of the white paper appears to hint at the linkage of peaceful unification with "one China."
In other words, if Taiwan does not accept the "one China" principle, Beijing would no longer rely on peaceful unification to solve the cross-strait problem. If this happens, the standoff between the two sides can only worsen, and the pressure facing the president newly inaugurated in May would become even greater.
Julian Kuo is an an associate professor of political science at the Soochow University.
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