When China announced it will attack Taiwan anytime it feels in the mood, the threat should have come as no surprise; it has always been a day lurking in the future.
That day was written into the script in the 1970s when Western countries adopted policies of studied ambiguity over the issue of China and Taiwan in order to open diplomatic relations with Beijing.
All have gone along with Beijing's "one China" policy with only vague definitions of what that implies. They have dropped diplomatic relations with Taiwan in order to trade with China, but have all kept secret embassies in Taipei masquerading as "trade offices" and staffed by seconded diplomats.
This fiction worked well enough while Taiwan was a repressive military dictatorship run by the heirs of the old KMT government who escaped to the island after their 1949 defeat in China's civil war. The fiction became a looming moral dilemma for the West, however, in the spring of 1987 when, after Taiwan's first multi-party elections, the KMT government dropped military rule and set the state on a course of complete political reform.
While China appeared also to be on the road to reform, it had been possible to keep the dilemma tucked away. But it keeps popping out of the box and it has got harder and harder for Western countries to stuff it back in.
For the US, which has a treaty to support the defense of Taiwan, events around the island's first free presidential elections in 1996 were a warning of things to come.
China attempted to disrupt the elections and frighten voters from supporting President Lee Teng-hui
In response Washington sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to waters just over the horizon from Taiwan. The incident sent Sino-US relations plummeting and bolstered support in Congress for the defense of Taiwan.
The Clinton administration, however, has continued to argue that China's stomping is all bluster and that as long as Taiwan doesn't do anything like seeking internationally-recognized independence, it is under no immediate threat.
Neverthless, the US has sent the aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk into the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait on what is officially being called a training mission. US officials acknowledged it would be monitoring the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
The deployment is seen as a gesture of support in Taiwan and Beijing blamed Washington for aggravating tensions.
The policy China announced Feb. 21 was a "paper missile" aimed at influencing the election. It has changed that equation in a fundamental way, however. It begs the question whether the ambiguous policies of the West, including Canada, are tenable any longer.
Until now China's position has been that Taiwan is an inalienable part of its domains and there must be unification sometime in the future. This should be by peaceful negotiation, but Beijing reserves the right to invade should "Taiwan seek formal independence."
The views of successive Taiwan governments, especially when they were dictatorships run by exiled mainlanders, have not been that different. They too have looked forward to unification.
That all changed when Taiwan became a democracy and native-born Taiwanese had their voices heard for the first time. They are clear -- over 80 percent in opinion polls -- they would like recognized independence, but will accept their current ambiguous statehood if that is the best on offer.
What China is now saying is that it will invade if it feels the island's leaders are dragging their feet on unification and that Beijing alone will decide the timetable. This is an altogether more unpredictable and dangerous situation.
And given that any Chinese attack on Taiwan would undoubtedly bring it into collision with American forces, it is an alarming revelation of Beijing's priorities.
As Beijing drew its new line in the sand, the US Congress was warming up to debate ratification of the trade normalization bill whose approval is necessary before China can join the WTO. There is now increasingly credible speculation the ratification will not pass. If it does not it will be nigh impossible for China to join the WTO without the agreement of one of its most important trading partners, the US.
The disciplines of WTO membership have been put forward in the West as desirable imperative which would force China to embrace institutional and ultimately political reform. But in its white paper Beijing has said it considers its chauvinist passion to possess Taiwan more important than reforms. It also calls into question the regime's willingness to live by international rules.
This should surely tell Western governments that their policies of studied ambiguity have passed their usefulness. Beijing is clearly taking no notice, or figures it can call the bluff. In either case it may be time to say to Beijing in short, sharp and clear words what is and is not acceptable in its approach to Taiwan.
Jonathan Manthorpe is a foreign affairs correspondent at the Vancouver Sun, in which this article was first published.
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