The mercury has been falling in Taipei since the Lunar New Year, making everybody feel cold. Physically, we shiver and feel the chill from the low temperatures outside. Deep inside, we are feeling the cold too, as Taiwan's financial industry and the stock market continue to send out nerve-wracking news, affecting this month's presidential election.
The Central Bank of China
As for the stock market, the police recently began a surprise crack down on unlisted businesses, which halted underground transactions and prevented many investors from being able to "cash out" in time.
Some theories say a crackdown on illegal stock transactions should not have a negative impact on the stock market but should stimulate it. However, as the news of crackdown spread, the market slumped.
There is something speculative and fragile about the local stock market that was clearly evident in this incident.
An unhealthy stock market and a financial market full of landmines such as overdue loans keeps Taiwan's economy susceptible to any little disturbance. Such disturbances can bring down the stock market and cause the landmines to explode one by one, upsetting the banks.
This kind of chain reaction forces investors to try to prop up the market.
Projecting these concerns onto the March presidential election, investors want security and stability first and then the slowing down of reform. This kind of structure has been established by the ruling party over a long period of time and the market is now depending on the ruling party to bolster it.
This kind of social background is not beneficial to the reform-minded Chen Shui-bian
The main beneficiary from such an economic-political structure is Lien Chan
However, we should not exclude the possibility of James Soong
It is still hard to predict who will benefit the most from such concerns, but we can be sure that this kind of morbid structure is going to affect the election,whether or not it is reasonable or fair.
Lai Hsiang-wai is a doctoral student at the department of politics at National Chengchi University.
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