In an attempt to pump up the momentum of his not-looking-too-good presidential campaign, Vice President Lien Chan (
Lien pointed to his two main contenders, the Democratic Progressive Party's Chen Shiu-bian (
Lien's statements demonstrated that for the first time the Nationalist party is on the brink of losing power in Taiwan since it moved to the island in 1949.
Lien 's "sense of crisis" also displayed the KMT's old trick of playing the "stability card" to try to appeal to voters who favor maintaining stability and the status quo.
But Lien's argument was simply another electoral ploy and won't be as effective as it has been in the past.
Playing the "stability card" has always been the KMT's main strategy for safeguarding it's power in Taiwan, especially after the rise of the DPP in the late 1980s.
During the martial law years, the Nationalist party's legitimacy was primarily based on economic performance -- with political freedom and democratic openness being shunted aside.
The "economic development preceeds political democratiza-tion" approach worked well simply because, to a large extent, the "economic miracle" the KMT created for Taiwan paved the way for it to prolong its rule.
However, the "stability card" or the "DPP means war" scenario lost some of its impact in recent years.
The threat has faded as the major opposition party became more pragmatic on the independence issue, while an increasing number of Taiwanese people began to support the "independent" status quo.
In 1994 the Taipei City mayoral election, the KMT launched a heavy propaganda attack on DPP candidate Chen Shiu-bian, warning that "once Chen was elected, the Chinese government would use force against Taiwan right away."
However, Beijing did not initiate any military action against Taiwan and Chen did not show any intention of pursuing de jure Taiwan independence during his four-year term.
In the 1997 county and city elections, the KMT reiterated its warning about the danger of Chinese missile attacks if the DPP won. The outcome was the same as 1996.
Instead, the only real incidence of military intimidation by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) occurred prior to the the 1996 presidential election, when President Lee Teng-hui (
Then there was China's furious reaction when Lee made his "special state-to-state" relations statement in last July.
The above-mentioned examples only partially explain why the stability card has apparently lost its impact now.
Another more crucial element comes from the "domestic consensus" that has been reached regarding Taiwan's independent statehood over the past couple of years.
For a party that attracted at least 30 percent of the popular vote in last few major elections, the DPP has, nevertheless, made tremendous efforts to transform itself.
It has moved from an extreme opposition political party embracing the idea of establishing an independent republic of Taiwan to one that recognizes the significance of searching for a "great compromise" and is gradually moving toward the center of political spectrum.
The transformation of the DPP in past six or seven years has undeniably exerted great pressure on the KMT over the independence-unification dichotomy.
In the face of challenges from the opposition party, the KMT has experienced its own internal power struggles between hardliners and reformers.
The latter, led by the first native Taiwanese president (Lee), painfully pulled the party away from its image of an "outside regime" that upheld reunification with China.
It is shameful that even when Lee's "new KMT" has grown to accept Taiwan's de facto independence from China, Lien still cannot face the facts -- because of electoral concerns and a fear of losing the support of conservatives.
Lien has labelled both Chen and Soong as adventurists and opportunists because, he says, Chen will promote de jure independence while Soong will surrender to Beijing.
This argument overlooks the fact that the whole international community is closely watching Taiwan's election.
Chen has already promised to the world that if elected, he will not proclaim independence or change the name of the country -- if China renounces the use of force against Taiwan.
Soong has also emphasized the importance of not provoking Beijing over the independence issue. However, he remains ambiguous on the relationship between Taiwan and China.
Under these circumstances, why would any candidate run the risk of undermining his own support base by simply doing something provocative?
Then there is the US. The US government has said that it will support a democratically elected president in Taiwan, be he from the ruling or opposition camp.
If it wasn't because of his fear of being kicked out of the game, Lien wouldn't have made such a senseless statement.
Given there is no major distinction between any of the candidates' cross-strait policies, what voters should consider is which candidate will be able to solve domestic concerns and bring us a better life.
Liu Shih-chung is deputy director of the DPP's department of international affairs.
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