Sun, Feb 13, 2000 page8

• Editorial: If China policy ain't broke ...

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  According to Vice President Lien Chan (連戰), as reported in yesterday's Washington Post, only he can save Taiwan from "domestic disturbance and foreign invasion," which is why the electorate must choose him as its next president in five weeks' time. Given that this is a highly charged campaign nearing its closing stage, his comments bear scrutiny for their inappropriateness.

  First off, the fact that Lien has chosen to attack the DPP's Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), whom he calls an adventurist who will openly seek to declare independence, and James Soong (宋楚瑜), whom he terms a "capitulationist" contemplating surrender to China, is a sign not of Lien's pursuit of a middle way between the two but rather of his desperation. It is, after all, easy to attack Chen and Soong's China policies because we know what they are. Although we were promised a policy paper from Lien's camp around Chinese New Year, we are still awaiting its appearance.

  His problem is obvious. Chen and Soong have already, between them, staked out most of the conciliatory positions on cross-strait relations. Both want to get closer to China; it is simply a question of what they are prepared to sacrifice to get there. Reading between the lines of Soong's position, he seems to believe that a negotiated unification along some kind of federal model is the only option for Taiwan, and for its people to expect otherwise is unrealistic -- a sentiment widely shared by think tanks and the current administration in Washington. Chen, on the other hand, after having eschewed Taiwan independence as a formal goal, appears to be following the policy of the Mainland Affairs Council, only rather more imaginatively. That is, of seeking contact with China, and establishing enough trust at a low level to get practical matters of bilateral concern attended to without actually giving anything away on sovereignty. And both Chen and Soong have said that they would welcome talks on anything, even political matters.

  Amid all this sweet reasonableness it is hard for Lien to come up with an impactful policy. Chen is now far more conciliatory than President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), with whom he had previously been trying to associate himself as a true Taiwan nationalist. Lien, meanwhile, finds himself unable to deviate too much from Lee's tough "no contacts are good contacts" line without causing a serious fallout with his biggest vote-getter. But he also has to come out with something more conciliatory than Chen in order to justify his attacks on him. These two positions are simply too far apart for any single policy to effectively straddle, hence the position paper's delay.

  To this newspaper, however, the fact that all three candidates are fighting for the mantle of "the man who can get on best with China" is distressing. There is huge international pressure on Taiwan to talk with China, which Lee has always successfully resisted, and for which he has been called stubborn, shortsighted and a "troublemaker." But Lee understands one thing that has so far eluded the presidential candidates: however desirable the idea of lessening cross-strait tensions through talks might sound, talks are, in fact, dangerous because they eventually have to lead somewhere. And given the options that are currently open to China, limited as they are by the kind of government and political system it has and the vision of its leaders, there is almost certainly nowhere such talks could lead that Taiwan would want to go. If Lien wants a sensible cross-strait policy, therefore, he can do no better than adopt Lee's, lock stock and barrel. It is about time that somebody exposed this idea of "reducing tensions by deepening contacts" for the dangerous fallacy that it is.
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