Picture this: In early March, 10 days before the presidential election, a non-KMT presidential candidate dies after a sniper attack. The politically-motivated murder infuriates the candidate's supporters and the hoodwinked masses, who protest across Taiwan. Riots ensue and protesters issue a call for the government to step down. Taiwan's society is thrown into chaos, the stock market tumbles and Beijing announces that it will send troops to Taiwan to quell the disorder if necessary. In response, the government suddenly declares martial law and indefinitely postpones the presidential election.
This is only a hypothetical scenario. But some US observers have always held such worries and even wonder whether President Lee Teng-hui
In the past, the KMT has played its stability card, warning voters of chaos if KMT rule ends.
Not long ago, Lee announced at an election rally that Taiwan's friends abroad, including the US and Japan, are all in favor of the KMT's continued rule, believing that the election of a non-KMT president would bring regional instability.
In fact, foreigners find Lee's wishful thinking absurd. Los Angeles Times columnist Jim Mann called Lee's claim a "whopper" and presented a completely different view in the form of an open letter to Lee.
He wrote that US officials and scholars do not care if the KMT continues its rule; instead, they are very concerned that the current KMT authorities are "troublemakers."
Americans do not expect Vice-President Lien Chan
The KMT hopes to bolster its election prospects by enlisting foreign support and playing the stability card, but its efforts will likely be in vain.
After a few meetings with DPP presidential candidate Chen Shui-bian
Hence AIT Chairman Richard Bush's announcement that the US is willing to maintain a close cooperative relationship with any candidate elected through due democratic process.
The major concern for many Americans is that the election of James Soong
The smooth running of a government can't rest on a loose association of politicians; it must have the firm and cohesive support of a party.
How does Japan view Taiwan's elections? With tens of thousands of Japanese businessmen operating in Taiwan, Japan's intelligence work has been thorough and accurate. The Japanese do not think that Lien will win; rather, they see either Chen or Soong emerging as Taiwan's new president.
In the spring of last year, Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reportedly went through private channels to invite Chen and Soong to Tokyo for meetings with cabinet members, to size them up.
Japanese officials are said to feel that Soong's China and foreign policies too closely echo Beijing's line. Tokyo is apprehensive that Japan's security and economic interests could be adversely affected if Taiwan and China get too close.
The Japanese government does not have this concern with Chen and Japanese officials have good feelings about him. They believe he is trusted by the people of Taiwan and has strong local ties.
How does Beijing view the three major candidates? In an interview published in the Washington Post, Soong said he would not push for Taiwan's entry into the UN and would not advocate Taiwan joining the TMD (Theater Missile Defense plan). Both ideas are in line with Beijing's position and at one point China felt that Soong was their choice.
But Beijing also worries that Soong would have a hard time earning people's trust if he was Taiwan's version of Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa
China is resolute in its opposition to Lee and does not want Lien to win the election. Officials and scholars in Beijing feel that Lien will continue Lee's policies if elected, including the "state to state" model and that Lien's election will allow Lee to continue to influence cross-strait policy.
Even though the DPP has still not removed the independence clause from its charter, Beijing feels that Chen's cross-strait policy presents some new ideas and allows room for future changes.
Beijing feels that Chen has the trust of the public, who are not concerned about him selling out Taiwan. Thus there is more room for Chen to liberalize cross-strait relations and interact with China than the other two candidates.
In the 1970s, when Mao Zedong
In the same vein, China under-stands that any breakthroughs in cross-strait relations depend on having a leader in Taiwan who can earn the people's support and trust: someone like Chen.
The Beijing authorities do not appear to consider Chen "unacceptable," in contrast with the misinformation disseminated by the pro-unification forces in Taiwan.
As Mann pointed out, Taiwan has won broad international support because it is a democracy. The norm of a democratic system is that different political parties alternate in power and political power is transferred peacefully and in an orderly manner.
Where is Taiwan headed as it enters the new millennium? Chen Shui-bian is the only candidate who has put forth policy papers and he clearly has a better and more forward-looking plan than the other candidates on domestic and cross-strait issues, national defense and foreign policy.
The people of Taiwan should be intelligent enough to make an objective and serious comparison and choice between the three candidates.
Parris Chang is a DPP legislator, chairman of the legislature's Foreign Relations Committee and a professor emeritus of political science at Pennsylvania State University.
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