Perhaps very few people in Taiwan think about the following scenario: one day, in the event of a famine or political turmoil along China's coastal provinces, 10,000 fishing boats carrying 100 refugees each -- a total of 1 million that is -- swarm to Taiwan asking for asylum or food.
Taiwan can hardly accommodate 100,000 refugees, let alone 1 million. Can Japan? Or South Korea? Or Hong Kong? If 100,000 Chinese refugees try to enter any of these countries or regions, they will either drown or cause serious damage to those economies.
This is why Japan's Maritime Safety Agency (
It is not being alarmist to say that this is a possibility for which Taiwan needs serious contingency planning. Even in peacetime, boat people from China's coastal provinces are capable of crossing the ocean and reaching the coasts of the US or South America. In case of turmoil in China, the outflow of refugees will enormous.
Under a strong push from President Lee Teng-hui (
As we all know, Taiwan is an island nation and coastal defense is the lifeblood of Taiwan's survival. Fifty years ago, coast guard operations were under the charge of the Taiwan Garrison Command. They were later turned over to the Army's Coast Guard Command.
In the early years, Taiwan's coast guard units were all made up of old soldiers. Patrolling the coastline, they had nothing to do but play chess every day and raise dogs for meat.
There have been rumors among residents that a Chinese gunboat once sailed to the mouth of the Tamshui River and that Chinese submarines have been seen in waters off Taitung, without the coast guards having the slightest knowledge. Actually, these rumors were not just empty talk, but evidence that Taiwan's security has been left wide open and that deplorably, little serious consideration has been given to coast guard operations as a matter of national security.
The passage of the Coast Guard Law is an important first step in an area which, for Taiwan, has swelled far beyond just cracking down on smugglers and illegal migrants. The coast guard must now pursue not just a law enforcement role but also make a valuable contribution to safeguarding national security.
The Coast Guard Administration, scheduled to be set up on Feb. 1 in accordance with the new laws, will have policing powers allowing them to board and search ships. The coast guard units will be equipped with patrol boats and aircraft and staffed by civilian officers.
Apart from its own normal patrols, we believe the Coast Guard Administration should also step up cooperation with neighboring countries in the areas of information sharing and even joint exercises if necessary, given the coast guard's importance to Taiwan.
This has nothing to do with political ideology, nor will it be a deliberate distancing between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwanese should realize that the massive threat from the other side of the Strait is not merely military. A refugee influx is enough to undermine Taiwan's economy and stability. There is no room for compromise in this area.
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