With the presidential election less than three months away, all kinds of corruption and sex scandals seem to have taken center stage in the media. The uproar over the "rotten apple theory" (ie, selecting the least rotten candidate) is prevailing over all other political perspectives.
As a matter of fact, the election for the "post-Lee Teng-hui era" (後李登輝時代) is very likely to affect Taiwan's party politics for some time to come.
Some presidential candidates have brought up the ideas of "alternation of political parties" and "non-party politics," while political observers use the concepts "party alignment" and "party de-alignment" as they try to describe or predict the upcoming election's influence on Taiwan's party politics.
The purpose of the so-called "party realignment" is, in short, to create a new and long-lasting combination of the electorate that will realign the power of support for political parties.
For example, in the 1930s, many US voters were inspired by the crisis of the Great Depression into switching their support from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party. These people formed the "New Deal Alliance," enabling the Democrats to take over the majority in the Congress from the Republicans.
The so-called "party-de-alignment," however, is the result of a change in the social-economic structure and a switch in the value orientation of the electorate that weakens the political parties' traditional functions, lowering the parties' support rating and increasing the rate of undecided voters.
For example, the US in the 1960s appears to have had similar symptoms that apparently have changed the nature of US party politics. Some believe "party de-alignment" may become the foundation for next "party realignment."
The development of party politics in Taiwan is just over 10 years old and the first party election campaign is only 10 years in the past. Taiwanese voters' party support tends to be low. "Choosing the candidate, not the party" is the major consideration.
Some scholars believe that the New Party's rise in the 1994 Taipei mayoral election and the 1995 legislative election, to some degree, shows a sign of "party realign-ment." However, more observation time is still needed to determine whether the NP has formed a "new and prolonged combination."
In the 1997 county commissioner and mayoral elections, the DPP beat the ruling KMT, winning most of the seats around the island; however, the KMT won the majority in the legislative election a year later.
In the 10-plus years of development in Taiwan's party politics, the voters' party support rating has neither grown nor ebbed. Has Taiwan ever had a "political de-alignment?" To answer this, we would need more evidence.
In view of the development of Taiwan's party politics, whether the March election will become a "significant election" is an issue worthy of our concern.
Although it will still take time to observe the phenomenon of "party realignment" and "party de-alignment," the symptoms of "party decline" seem to have arrived.
In democratic developing countries, the tendency of party functions to weaken has drawn the attention of many political scholars. The experiences of various countries indicate that the role of political parties in mobilizing and unifying interests is decreasing in many important social and political issues. Political parties have given away the leadership of setting agendas and proposing public policy to pressure groups, the media and even individual political figures.
Political parties' mobilization capabilities have been challenged by the rise of the electronic media. During campaigns, candidates with charisma make use of the national media to directly appeal for the electorate's support. Even in countries with cabinet systems, charismatic candidates such as former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Germany's ex-Chancellor Helmut Kohl and British Prime Minister Tony Blair are widely perceived as their parties' most important assets in attracting voters.
Finally, voters are sick and tired of the similar political policies and endless scandals of both the KMT and the opposition, and this leads to "party de-alignment" as well as the decline of political parties.
Some scholars believe that during the past few years, some political parties in Western countries have striven to reform their organizations and to strengthen their policy-making process -- both signs of of "restoration" and "transformation." Still, most scholars believe the decline of political parties is a common phenomenon.
The above-mentioned symptoms of decline in Western countries have, to a certain degree, emerged in Taiwan as well in recent years. The image, charisma, agenda-setting and capability to control the media of both the party-nominated and independent candidates in the March presidential election have become the major factors of the campaign. Political parties have taken a secondary role.
As for organizational mobilization, some major presidential candidates have transcended the traditional party's mobilization systems to establish alliances that can reach out to the voters. The candidates' campaign headquarters have played a leading role, as local party organizations are relegated to second place if used at all.
All these phenomena show that in Taiwan, party politics seems to be confronting a crisis of decline before it has even had a chance to grow.
No matter who wins the March election, political parties may continue to decline. What impact this will have on Taiwan's party politics in the future is worthy of study and concern.
Wang Yeh-lih is chairman of the political science department at Tunghai University.
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