The year 2000 promises to be a time of great change. Elections in Taiwan and the US will have an enormous impact on Taiwan's domestic peace and prosperity, but also on the international environment. And once past, the initial challenge (or fiction) of the Y2K computer bug, technology stocks are likely to continue to bolster economic growth in the US and enhance Taiwan's global role in high-tech trade and development.
Of course, no one knows how events may overtake the best-made plans for the coming year. No one could have predicted that in 1999 NATO aircraft would destroy the PRC Embassy in Belgrade, accidentally killing three "journalists." Similarly, many world leaders (including some of Taiwan's own) were surprised by President Lee Teng-hui's (
Taiwan's March presidential election is the number one story of the year, with the US election close behind it. March marks the first time the people of Taiwan will choose a new president. The campaign already has produced huge surprises and shocking revelations. One could easily predict that Lien Chan (連戰) would struggle to emerge from Lee Teng-hui's shadow and that James Soong (宋楚瑜) would dominate early polls based largely on personality. But amazingly, Soong did not believe the KMT would reveal his past financial misdeeds -- a near-fatal blow to any reform candidate -- and he did not foresee the damage that such revelations would do to the credibility of his campaign. This is a shocking lack of judgement and preparation for a man who hopes to lead Taiwan's political system into the uncharted waters of "above party politics" -- the Taiwanese equivalent of the American mantra of "bipartisanship" or "nonpartisanship."
But the surprises do not end with Soong's missteps. The KMT was hit with a sex scandal at the top of the party. While former secretary-general John Chang (章孝嚴) did what Bill Clinton could not -- accepting personal responsibility and honorably resigning his post -- it is amazing that party leaders would allow this kind of a political risk to go unresolved so late in a campaign.
Both the Soong campaign and the Chang affair point to important political challenges for Taiwan in 2000. Do Taiwan voters believe that public officials should resign their office if caught in an extra-marital affair? If so, what then should be done with candidates caught with tens (if not hundreds) of millions of dollars in past campaign funds stashed away in relatives' private bank accounts? Will the blood-letting between Soong and the KMT cripple their ability to govern once elected, or will each so wound the other that Chen Shui-bian's (
While the election outcome remains uncertain, one thing we can count on is more personal attacks, charges of corruption and promises of reform. China and the US may find it difficult, but their interests will best be served by leaving Taiwan politics to the Taiwanese people. Beijing should not exert military pressure and Washington should not apply political pressure. Both should let democracy work, trusting the pragmatism of the people -- they know the candidates, the parties and potential risks. It is clear from Jim Mann's irresponsible open letter that some American officials fear what President Lee might do if Lien still trails Soong as the election draws near. It is also clear that Beijing fears the continuation of Lee's "special state-to-state relations" and other policies, and threatens to go ballistic if Chen should win. Such outside challenges to Taiwan's democracy should come as no surprise to the people of Taiwan. They know that they do not exercise their civil rights in isolation.
But what of the promises of the new year? Perhaps the best news is that the US will also elect a new president. US President Bill Clinton, aside from the belated deployment of aircraft carriers in 1996, has been a great disappointment. No matter which of the current front-runners from either party is elected, it will be an improvement over Clinton, but not as much as you might think. The next president is not likely to change the substance of American policy towards Taiwan, but rather its implementation. Bush or Gore probably will not change the three joint communiques or Taiwan Relations Act (
These two presidential elections are likely to have a greater impact on Taiwan's development than any other events in 2000. Russia's June election could dramatically change Russia's relations with the US and China. It could draw US attention away from China, or it could heighten tensions with China. Either way, Taiwan will be affected. China's economy could stumble. Bank insolvency and money-losing SOE's are among the well-known risks. A collapse in either area would shake Taiwan. And there are many other events and developments that will determine whether 2000 is a year of promise or peril for Taiwan.
I prefer to begin the new year with optimism. Taiwan and China should join the WTO together this year. It promises great potential benefits for both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Hopefully, WTO membership and new leadership in Taipei and Washington can overcome the lack of change in Beijing and lead these relationships toward greater peace, prosperity and freedom as we move into the 21st century.
Stephen Yates is a policy analyst at The Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center.
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