China did not have to obtain the consensus of Hong Kong and Macau residents over their return to the embrace of the "motherland." It only needed to negotiate with their colonizers, Britain and Portugal, for their handovers. But Taiwan is completely different from Hong Kong and Macau. China can get no benefit by pressuring Taiwan as the "next target" of unification in the aftermath of the Macau handover. Such pressure can only increase tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
Negotiations over Hong Kong's handover were lengthy and tortuous. Given Hong Kong's legal foundation, getting Hong Kong people to rule themselves can only become easier, no matter how difficult it is in the beginning. But Macau's case is completely the opposite. After 400 years of colonial rule, the Portuguese have left a considerable mess in Macau.
Of course, they are known for having created some of the worst examples of colonialism around the world. Some of their former colonies, including Mozambique, Angola, and East Timor, are still reeling from the effects of devastating internal strife.
In fact, the Portuguese government asked Beijing as early as 25 years ago to take Macau back. But China declined the offer, busy as it was handling the finale of the Cultural Revolution at the time. For the Macanese, taking care of themselves will be a matter of increasing difficulty, despite the ostensible smoothness of the beginning.
Life in Macau has come under considerable Chinese control over the past 20 years, whether in economic, political, or social spheres. Most of the construction projects go to Chinese companies. Chinese banks control about 40 percent of the banking sector. Book stores and newspapers are controlled by leftists. In fact, the purpose of the handover ceremony was only symbolic. Macau has long been in Beijing's grip.
Now, Macau has a sluggish economy, a yawning gap between its rich and poor, a larger-than-police force of triads. Most of the government revenues come from gambling. Not many people are feeling sorry that such a place of corruption and sin has returned to the rule of socialist China. However, calling Macau a model of "one country, two systems" may be something even the Beijing authorities find it difficult to believe.
Despite its ostensible stability, Hong Kong has been suffering from increasing media self-censorship and the gradual erosion of judicial and administrative independence. Educational and economic policies have also been affected by political pressure. For whatever policies they make, the SAR government has to send out feelers and ask for Beijing's go-ahead. In fact, Hong Kong has lost more than half of its aura since the 1997 handover.
As China continues to develop, Hong Kong's status will become increasingly unimportant. However, if anything begins to go wrong in China, Hong Kong will definitely be drawn into the mess. In order to make good on the "one country, two systems" promise, China will have to ensure that it will never become a democracy. Once China truly open its doors to Hong Kong, the Beijing authorities will not be able to stem the tide of demands from its own people for a better life.
Taiwan differs from the two former colonies like an orange differs from an apple. Taiwan has just gotten rid of an authoritarian regime after 40 years of struggle. Building a democratic system has not been an easy job. Given this background, the "one country, two systems" model is simply suicidal for Taiwan, which has nothing to gain, but everything to lose from accepting it.
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