Beijing is taking back Macau. Once again, all of its propaganda machineries have been mobilized to sing praises about the "one country, two systems" arrangement. Of course, Taiwan is the intended target of this propaganda. However, Beijing is only exposing its own weaknesses.
Anyone who knows anything about Macau knows that ever since the "December 3 Incident" in 1966, Macau has become a "semi-liberated zone" in terms of politics and economy -- right down to public opinion. It has been completely under China's control.
The pro-China Chinese community leader at the time, Ho Yin (
Individuals holding a firm grip over the local gambling industry, the lifeblood of Macau's economy, include pro-Beijing tycoons Stanley Ho (
The media in Macau, especially the Chinese language media, overwhelmingly supports China. The voice of the democratic faction can barely be heard. From a certain abstract standpoint, Macau has long been under a "one country, two systems" arrangement, although the "Special Administrative Region chief executive" position continued to be assigned by Portugal as a mere formality.
However, if we compare the situation in Macau on the eve of its return to China with the 1997 handover of Hong Kong, we discover that Beijing really has nothing to gloat about. Beijing had originally rewarded Macau's "cooperation" with a promise to not station troops in Macau. Right now, not only is China stationing troops in the territory, but in fact Macau is living under the shadow of China's prowess, as more Chinese troops are on the way and the Chinese police have been conducting large-scale raids on criminal gangs in the nearby Chinese region. Beijing has already hosted a banquet for the "triad," or gang leaders, in Macau as a warning to these leaders. To avoid troubles, these leaders have chosen to leave Macau during the handover "festivities."
People tend to blame Macau's problems on the triads. However, the gambling industry, the root of the gangleaders' power, is monopolized by the pro-China faction. The Macau underworld enjoys the support of other gangsters and government officials in the Chi-nese mainland. Besides accepting bribes, some Portuguese judiciary personnel in Macau have also joined the triad game. As a result, "the Monte Carlo of the east" has essentially became the "Sicily of the east."
All the bloodshed and gang fights in Macau during the past two to three years have not only made China lose face, but also influenced Macau's economic development. Concerned about the social instability spurred on by Macau's return to China, the Chinese central government has been called on to take care of the problems.
The Chinese media has always attributed the prosperity of Hong Kong to the support of the "mother country" behind the scenes. Why is it that the economy of Macau, which has similarly enjoyed the strong support of the mother country, remains in a state of depression and monopolized by the gambling industry?
In recent years, China's biggest support to Macau was probably the countless corrupt government officials gambling in Macau's casinos. By casually gambling away several million dollars or tens of millions or dollars each time without lifting an eyebrow, they are supporting Macau's economic prosperity with the hard-earned money of the Chinese people. Another contribution is the "new blood" for the prostitution industry provided by the large number of Chinese women traveling to Macau for "sightseeing" or even on "government business" visas. Unfortunately, none of these efforts have managed to salvage Macau's economy. In fact, Macau's economy has been on a path of continuous decline since 1995.
The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government took over from the British US$120 billion in foreign reserves, financial reserves, and real estate trusts. The Macau government won't receive even one percent of this figure from Portugal. Although the economic prowess of Macau is no match for Hong Kong's, the difference is simply too great. This "semi-liberated zone" has not made the mother country proud in this regard.
After sovereignty changes hands, will the "one country, two systems" arrangement improve Macau's situation? Not necessarily. Why? Many problems stand in the way.
1. The triad problem, the subject of concern for most people, in fact should not be a big problem, because the Chinese government itself is the biggest "gang." Under the universal rule of "survival of the fittest," a bigger gang would eat up smaller gangs. Therefore, the local gangs of Macau hardly have any chance to expand. In fact, the "gambling king" of Macau, Stanley Ho, also feels confident about this point. A possible problem would be a struggle between the "new gangs" and "new powers" from China, fighting over Macau's economic interests and casino industry, thereby spurring on new waves of gang warfare.
2. How will the focus of Macau's economy be reshaped? China, which attaches the utmost importance to its face, will surely not encourage the gambling industry to expand. Currently, Stanley Ho and Henry Fok enjoy an exclusive right to the gambling business. Ho has already indicated that this exclusive right is being revoked. Talks of plans to develop Hong Kong's gambling industry have exerted pressure on Macau as well. Therefore, changes may take place in this area. Ho has already transferred some of his assets and capital to other investments. About 60 percent of Macau's revenue has come from its gambling industry. Therefore, predictably, the economy will become a major problem in the future.
3. The nativization of the civil servants in Macau has been quite slow. The Portuguese and Macau natives have been dragging their feet about handing over authority in order to protect their own interests. Therefore, the Chinese high civil-service officials are lower in rank and relatively inexperienced. Whether the Special Administrative Region Government will be able to operate normally, especially in term of handling emergencies, requires further observation. The qualifications of Hong Kong's civil servants are in general better, but even they performed below expectation in the management of the recent financial crises and the chicken flu epidemic. Therefore, Macau has much to worry about.
Macau, unlike Hong Kong, does not enjoy a strong political and economic foundation. Therefore, it is doubtful that Macau will do well under the "one country, two systems" arrangement. Furthermore, it is inevitable that Beijing would meddle and interfere at the first sign of the slightest unrest or disturbance.
Paul Lin is a commentator on Hong Kong issues who currently resides in New York.
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