Sun, Dec 19, 1999 page8

• Reliance on international help dangerous

  • Damon Bristow
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  Speaking to a gathering of business people in Hong Kong last week, Vice-Admiral Water Doran, the Commander of the American Seventh fleet stated that if a conflict erupted in the Taiwan Strait the United States would look to other nations to help out. Somewhat frustratingly, he did not state which countries Washington would asked to join in. But a number of obvious candidates nevertheless spring to mind.

  The first of these is, of course, Japan -- America's main military ally in East Asia. Tokyo, under the terms of the newly revised US-Japan Guidelines for Defense Co-operation, would probably be expected, not only to let American forces mount their own operation from its bases in Okinawa and elsewhere, but also to provide them with rear area support. Units of the Japanese Self Defense Force (SDF) may even be called upon to conduct surveillance and intelligence gathering operations, look for mines and evacuate Japanese citizens from the island.

  The United States would probably ask Britain and France to lend a hand, as well. Both countries are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), and to differing degrees have worked closely with Washington on both the diplomatic and military fronts to deal with the threat from Iraq and the problems of Former Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). Rumor also has it that during the Taiwan Strait's missile crisis of 1996 Washington consulted both of them about developments in the area.

  Better still, from a Taiwanese point of view, Britain was one of strongest backers of the decision to allow NATO to bomb Serbia without the approval of the United Nations in response to the humanitarian crisis in the province of Kosovo.

  On the military front, Britain is also developing its expeditionary capability so that it can deploy its armed forces wherever necessary. France is in a similar position. However, the chances of either actually being able to deploy a significant military force in the Taiwan Strait at this point are slim. Initially at least, America would probably look to them for diplomatic support.

  Australia, which is another key American ally in the region and has been a keen contributor to international peacekeeping missions, would likely be asked to join in as well. If recent events are anything to go by -- in the wake of being handed the command of the International Force for East Timor (Interfet), Australian officials have started to talk openly about the possibility of teaming up with the US in any future regional peacekeeping missions -- it would answer the call.

  Now for the bad news: where its comes to dealing with Beijing, the majority of Western leaders conveniently tend to forget their high-minded principles. At heart, most are worried that if they upset Beijing by raising tricky issues such as human rights and Taiwan, their companies will be barred from participating in the Chinese economic miracle, and the best contracts handed to their competitors. The need to "engage" China and educate it in the ways of good international behavior is often rolled out as an excuse for avoiding sensitive issues as well.

  Even if these hurdles could be overcome, the chances of actually getting the UNSC to back a multinational operation in the Taiwan Strait are pretty much zero. Beijing, and probably Moscow, would simply veto such a move. That, in turn, means that the only option open to America and its allies would have to be done without the organization's permission. Beijing -- which believes that the Taiwan issue is a domestic affair, and is convinced that American and Japan are hell bent on dividing China and containing it militarily -- would probably see such a decision as tantamount to a declaration of war.

  On a more practical note, it's likely that if China actually attacked Taiwan the chances are that they would try and get the job over and done with as soon as possible. The advantage of a quick strike is that it would make it very difficult for Washington and its partners to come to the island's aid -- putting together durable coalitions is never easy at the best of times and holding them together is even harder. That could be a major issue if the People's Liberation Army (PLA) actually managed to establish itself on the island, thus raising the stakes of any military operation.

  Finally, the repercussions for both regional and international security would probably be serious to say the least. Obviously, it would place Washington in direct opposition to Beijing. A decision by Japan to side with America, meanwhile, would mean that the country's relationship with China would erupt into open hostility, thereby exposing the most dangerous geopolitical fault-line in East Asia today. Globally, China would probably respond by withdrawing its support for a range of international agreements. It may even lead to a further strengthening of the relationship between China and Russia.

  Does this mean that the United States and others would simply shut their eyes and look the other way, or simply impose a raft of ineffective economic and other sanctions, in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan? That's difficult to say -- there's always a chance that, despite all the obvious dangers, they'll decide it is in the interest of long-term peace and stability to punish such an act of wanton aggression.

  Rather than waiting to find out, however, Admiral Doran and others in the military should probably spend more time thinking about how to stop the crisis from erupting in the first place than talking about what to do once the conflict has already broken out.

  Damon Bristow is the Head of the Asia Program at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense Studies in London.
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