With the presidential election drawing near, Taiwan's "China policy" is becoming an important topic for all candidates. In addition to the "no haste, be patient" (
Taiwan Independence Party (TAIP,
Hsu is convinced that Taiwan should counter China's political maneuvering with its strong economic influence. However, a fundamental requirement for this is that the side adopting this strategy must have a strong enough economy. If China's population was merely a few million, then Taiwan could probably control Chinese politics through its economic strength.
However, China has a population of 1.3 billion, so although its GNP per capita is far lower than that of Taiwan, its total economic power is still many times that of Taiwan. If Taiwan's businesses relocate to China, this only further increases the level of China's control over Taiwan's economy. Not only would Taiwan not be able to influence Chinese politics, but China would be able to defeat Taiwan through economic means.
Although Chen hasn't mentioned "boldly march west," the effect of setting up the three direct links would be a significant cost reduction for Taiwanese business migration to China. It is, therefore, no different from Hsu's "boldly march west" policy. Chen is essentially following the path laid by Hsu and Shih Ming-teh (施明德). The only difference being that Hsu and Shih lack Chen's charisma and only drew public wrath when they proposed the "boldly march west" policy and a "great reconciliation" (?j和解).
TAIP candidate Cheng's position is that Taiwan and China are friends, not part of the same family. Cheng advocates resistance against invasion on the one hand and the overthrow of the Republic of China (ROC) government on the other. Unfortunately most people do not support Cheng's view. Even pro-independence hardliners within the TAIP and DPP have abandoned Cheng to support Chen.
The "special state-to-state" model, accepted by more than 70 percent of people in Taiwan, advocates negotiations with China on an equal footing and a firm denial that Taiwan is a Chinese province. This model is the most innovative position taken by President Lee since he took over the presidency.
"No haste, be patient" is Lee's most successful policy. Only through restrictions on economic relocation can we avoid economic over-dependency. Some say that although the three direct links have not been officially opened, these links have been quite active underground. As long as these activities do not receive official endorsement, the volumes involved will remain relatively small. It will be difficult for Taiwan to become over-dependent on China under these circumstances. If we open up the three direct links and eliminate the "no haste, be patient" policy, then China could easily annihilate Taiwan with its economic leverage.
Actually, President Lee and the TAIP are in agreement in some areas. They both have a Taiwanese perspective on the China issue, in which they are prepared to resist a possible military invasion while also taking precautions against an economic takeover by China. The differences between the two are that the TAIP does not recognize the ROC government and actively seeks to establish a Taiwanese government. The new KMT led by President Lee not only recognizes the ROC government, but acknowledges the special state-to-state relations between it and the People's Republic of China (PRC).
So then, Lien identifies with the "special state-to-state" model and supports the "no haste, be patient" policy. Cheng advocates the establishment of the Republic of Taiwan. Although they hold divergent views, both have at least held firm to their original positions.
The positions of Chen and Soong, on the other hand, shift according to the tide of votes. While visiting the US, Chen advocated Taiwan independence to Taiwanese associations. However, Chen took a new middle path and supported the three direct links after returning to Taiwan.
When Soong was in the US, he supported three direct links and opposed the establishment of TMD. After returning to Taiwan, Soong declared that he stands on the front line of opposition against communism. Chen is convinced that he has a firm hold on the pro-independence voters. Therefore, Chen is currently targeting pro-unification voters. Soong has the pro-unification voters in his pocket. He is, therefore, seeking to win voters over with his "Taiwan consciousness."
Between Soong and Chen, it is quite clear who is the more successful. Soong has a chance of winning the support of pro-independence voters, while Chen will never be able to win the support of pro-unification voters, however hard he tries.
In contrast, no matter what Soong says and does, pro-unification voters are unlikely to abandon him, while Chen might possibly lose support from Taiwan independence fundamentalists as a result of his position on three direct links.
The most interesting thing is that Chen, generally associated with Taiwan independence, is warming up to China to a far greater degree than Lien, while Soong, generally considered a pro-unification candidate, is actively playing the role of the protector of "Taiwanese consciousness."
Chen Mao-hsiung is a professor at National Sun Yat-sen University in Kaohsiung.
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