President Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) "two states" remarks were the starting gun in what may become an arms race between Mainland China and Taiwan. After comparing the military prowess of each other's weaponry, China and Taiwan are now busy sizing up their respective military budgets.
If this continues, then the Taiwan Strait may become another regional hot spot like the Middle East, the Balkans, South Asia, the Korean peninsula, and East Africa.
Two questions should be asked about the arms race: whom does it protect, and whom does it benefit?
There are two ways to maintain peace and defend one's sovereignty: diplomatic negotiation and military deterrence. Taiwan has adopted both of these policies in the past, but military deterrence has gained ground recently, following diplomatic failures, pressure from China, and rising nationalist sentiment on the island
The problem is there is a huge gap in the national strength of Taiwan and Mainland China. Some estimates predict that China's GDP will be the world's largest by the year 2015. The military balance between Taiwan and China will inevitably tilt towards China in the near future.
What will happen at that point to Taiwan's military expenditure, which has always taken up a disproportionate amount of the government's budget and continues to do so? Taiwan's air superiority, based on second-generation fighters, is already slipping with China's coming purchase of Russian-made Su-27 and now the announcement that it will also purchase the even higher-performance Su-30s as well as early-warning aircraft. Should Taiwan now move to purchase third-generation aircraft? Where would the money come from? It is not a wise move to enter into an arms race, but public sentiment seems to be behind such a shift. This presents a serious danger to Taiwan's future development.
Three examples will show who would benefit from Taiwan's entrance into the arms race: first, the death of Yin Ching-feng (??M楓) -- a colonel murdered in 1992 when he was about to blow the whistle on an arms procurement scandal; second, the cheer that went up from Lockheed, the US manufacturer of the F-16, when Taiwan's purchase solved the company's financial crisis; third, the scandal that emerged among officials in Taiwan, China, and France over Taiwan's purchase of Lafayette-class missile frigates.
Profits from arm sales are just too large and enticing, for anyone to really want to put an end to wars and conflicts. Arms sales are sometimes even used to promote national development. The arms dumped into the sea off the end of aircraft carriers after the Vietnam War and the cruise missiles launched during the Gulf War actually gave a tremendous stimulus to the US domestic economy. The arms race between China and Taiwan is also tied in with the interests of owners and employees of countless arms manufacturing companies, as well as the GNP of arms-exporting nations. Thus, the US says it is concerned about rising tensions between Taiwan and China, but refuses to reduce its arms exports.
The latest poll shows that the US public is willing to sacrifice 20,000 soldiers to protect Taiwan. Is this good news or bad news? What casualty figures could the public in Taiwan accept? The answer is simple. What Taiwan needs is not an arms race or possible war, but peace and development. Taiwan's status is complicated by being locked between two powerful nations, but this just means that Taiwan needs a wiser strategy, not more tanks and warplanes.
Wang To is a DPP legislator.
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