The newly opened Hsintien line of the Taipei Mass Rapid Transit System (MRT) has survived its first test of high-volume traffic over the holiday weekend. Now one more segment of greater Taipei's weary commuters has the option of avoiding the traffic on their way to work.
However, at the risk of sounding contrary in the face of all this good news, let us point out a few facts about mass transit systems in general and the MRT in particular.
First, no one should expect that the opening of this line, nor even the connection of the network that will occur when the central portion of the Pan-nan line is opened, will have much impact on the amount of traffic on our streets. The experience in other countries warrants extreme pessimism. For example, in North America no new rail or subway system since WWII has had any significantly positive effect on traffic congestion; moreover, nearly all of these systems have generated much lower ridership than their planners had assumed.
In Taipei, the ridership picture has been better, but the effect on traffic congestion is likely to be the same. The reason is that the bulk of the MRT''s riders are not in fact car drivers -- who, as in all societies, are stubbornly resistant to abandoning their vehicles -- but people who formerly rode buses. The fact that such a large number of Taipei residents are bus users is what makes the the operation of the MRT viable.
Besides providing the base of users, it is the ability to combine a long ride on the MRT with a short bus connection that allows a relatively small number of MRT lines to effectively reach most of the metropolitan area. Thus, the wise steps taken to make such transfers more convenient, including free or discounted fares, need to be continued and strengthened.
Consideration of buses raises the comparison between the hugely expensive and lengthy (even before the egregious cost and schedule overruns that have plagued the project) MRT and the cheap, quick and effective bus lanes that have been introduced more recently. The latter have actually had as much impact on transit in Taipei as the opening of the MRT. Making the buses run more smoothly and reliably has halted the steady decline in bus ridership, enabling the bus companies to upgrade their equipment and services, creating a virtuous circle.
This analysis holds clear implications for policy. First, the Taipei City government should continue to expand the bus lane network, especially to the western part of the city, and the Taipei County government should immediately commence a similar scheme.
Second, the plans for MRT systems in other cities, such as Kaohsiung and Taichung, need to be scrutinized carefully. In these cities, the bus system is collapsed, or rapidly collapsing. Unless and until concerted efforts are made to revive bus ridership, including the introduction of bus lanes, newer vehicles, and more frequent service, these cities are not qualified to build far more expensive rail-based systems. Under current conditions, even if they are able to avoid the grotesque levels of corruption and waste that occurred in Taipei's MRT construction, their systems will still be nothing but white elephants.
Mass transit, despite the hype and lure of high technology, is not about building the flashy "city of the future." Mass transit is a basic form of social welfare, since it primarily benefits the more disadvantaged members of society -- those who cannot drive cars, because they are too poor, too young, or too old. All too often, governments forget this basic principle in their haste to boost their city's "face."
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