Indonesia, the second largest country in East Asia, has a new president. Abdurrahman Wahid has been elected by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), capping a tumultuous twenty-four hours of major decisions, including rejecting incumbent president B.J. Habibie's "accountability" speech and approving the results of East Timor's referendum for independence.
The new era that began with the first free parliamentary elections in June has not yet fully taken shape, and there are certainly ominous signs, not least the continued possibility of mob violence, and suspicions of behind the scenes maneuvering.
Nonetheless, the election is remarkable for many reasons. First, it is remarkable that the race came down to two candidates with reform credentials, both of whom had strongly criticized the regime of ousted dictator Suharto. Habibie, the standard bearer of the status quo, in the end was decisively rejected. Second, although not all of her followers have followed suit, defeated candidate Megawati Sukarnoputri has been gracious in defeat, and Wahid has returned the favor. It is even possible that they could yet form a "grand alliance" of some sort.
Even if no such deal is in the offing, Megawati has the opportunity to do what few have ever done in East Asia -- form a strong and effective parliamentary opposition. Already the MPR has witnessed more vigorous debate than nearly anyone inn Indonesia can remember. The scrutiny of the press in the process has also been unprecedented. These are the tangible fruits of reform.
Dangers still lurk, particularly in the form of the army, which is still a major player, and which is looking to reaffirm its "special position" as ultimate caretaker of Indonesia's sovereignty. Its appalling performance in East Timor showed that it has a political agenda of its own it is determined to follow, irrespective of the wishes of the executive branch. One of Wahid's most pressing tasks must be to start a process of establishing true civilian control over the military.
Civil unrest is also a significant threat, in the short term from disgruntled supporters of losing candidates and from the ethnic tensions simmering in various parts of the vast archipelago. The initial post-Suharto opening has unfortunately sparked much violence, as pent-up anger is released.
Progress on these political matters will be the prerequisite for the massive effort needed to reform and revitalize Indonesia's economy. None of the presidential candidates offered much in the way of concrete economic policies, but the selection of key Cabinet posts will be closely watched as an early indicator of whether the destructive cronyism of the Suharto era has finally been put to rest.
Indonesia matters. If these first steps toward democracy can be sustained and developed, the whole region will shift in a more democratic direction. South Korea, the Philippines, and of course ourselves here in Taiwan will cease to become exceptional outposts in a sea of "Asian values," but join in an emerging Asian mainstream of pluralism and human rights. China and its ilk will increasingly come to seem anachronistic.
And of course the converse is true. If Indonesia descends into anarchy, it will destabilize the region, and a takeover by the military would hearten dictators elsewhere.
Indonesia's political success or failure will have similar economic consequences. With US$12 billion in direct investment and 15,000 businessmen based there, Taiwan will feel these effects more directly than most.
Therefore, we must hope that Wahid will be able to form a stable government, and that it and the other parties will learn how to fight within democratic constraints for their interests. The people of Indonesia, and the region, deserve no less.
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