Thu, Oct 21, 1999 page8

• Decree favors KMT electoral hopes

  • Julian Kuo
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  Five days after the 921 earthquake, President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) finally issued the emergency decree, which was passed by the Legislative Yuan. Due to the scale of devastation, the term of the emergency decree was set at six months, to terminate on March 24, 2000, six days after the presidential election.

  After the emergency decree came into effect, the monopoly of power granted to government administrative departments has given rise to two lines of speculation:

  The first is from the "anti-Lee" camp. They believe that the KMT has not ruled out postponing the election if Lien Chan's (連戰) support does not increase by next year. It is possible that the KMT may offer the reason that "the victims of the disaster have not yet been appropriately settled" as an excuse. Recently at a press conference, Lee did not clearly refute the proposition as to "whether or not the election will be postponed," simply saying that "everything is decided according to the Constitution." This made the "anti-Lee" people even more anxious and suspicious, especially when some KMT legislators and National Assembly deputies expressed support for the National Assembly term extension.

  The second line of speculation comes from the DPP, which believes that the KMT intends to build a campaign stage, putting Lien in the spotlight through the emergency decree, sidelining the Legislative Yuan and the city and county governments in the process. Similarly, the so-called reconstruction efforts are in fact a disguised form of grassroots vote-buying. The Executive Yuan has not only put itself in overall charge of all reconstruction projects (including the massive funds and the bidding process), it has also bypassed the county governments to deal directly with the townships. Since the county commissioners of the disaster-stricken areas mostly belong to the DPP, and the township mayors mostly belong to the KMT, the suspicion of political motives is unavoidable.

  Moreover, since Taiwan does not have an emergency decree law, DPP and New Party legislators are afraid that they will be unable to play a part in the operation of the decree, and they requested the establishment of a "post-disaster reconstruction supervisory committee" (災後重建監督委員會). But KMT legislators, under instruction from the Executive Yuan, have deprived the committee of legislative and budgetary powers, turning it into a nominal body.

  Speaking objectively, the first suspicion is exaggerated. After all, if President Lee intended to postpone the election, the best opportunity to make the announcement would have been earlier, when emergency rescue efforts were in full swing. Lee's vague comments at the press conference seem more likely due to poor expression rather a calculated ploy. Recently Lien publicly stated that the presidential election will be held as scheduled, which should have caused "anti-Lee phobia" to recede.

  The second speculation is likely to arouse more controversy as reconstruction is carried out. On Nov. 6, there will be a by-election for the Yunlin County commissioner, in which collusion between the government and construction firms and the issue of vote-buying will definitely become the focus of struggle between the ruling party and the opposition. James Soong's (宋楚瑜) signature drive for his presidential candidacy, which begins on Nov. 23, is likely to focus on accusations such as "the government has not done its best in post-disaster reconstruction" and that "the government is only acting in its own interests."

  To Lien, the emergency decree serves as an imperial scepter, freeing him from legal constraints and granting him power to act without prior consent. In order to support Lien, KMT legislators, unsurprisingly, gave up their legislative powers and voluntarily submitted to the emergency decree. The DPP knows very well that if the reconstruction funds (worth several hundreds of billions of NT dollars) are misused for vote-buying, it will have a very powerful effect on the election results. Yet given the public's expectation of "attending first to the rescue work, then the election," if there is no clear evidence showing illegal behavior to obtain political advantage, the DPP may find it extremely difficult to support its accusations and criticisms.

  The use of the emergency decree has led to unfair political competition. Lien is promising relief funds everywhere and he is always the focus of media attention. It is obvious that this is the "backbone" of his campaign, despite repeated comments that "he is not in election mode." In comparison to Lien, Soong and Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) lack the resources and political office to deal effectively with matters relating to the disaster. With Lien able to be the first to respond, they can only give low-key responses if they are to avoid being criticized for "politicizing issues" or "putting up a political show." If the situation continues this way, unless the KMT or Lien make mistakes, Soong and Chen are likely to be forced behind the scenes, their only option is to wait for an opportunity to strike.

  Julian Kuo is an associate professor of political science of Soochow University.
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