Mon, Oct 18, 1999 page8

• US electoral politics affect Taiwan

  • Nat Bellocchi
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  There are several important issues now being debated in Washington, but all of them carry with them the burden of next year's elections in the US. The jockeying between the White House and Congress for effective party policy positions is present on almost every issue. This jockeying is not only between Republicans and Democrats, but within each party as well. For the moment, both leading presidential candidates are trying to distance themselves from the issues being debated in Washington. By the time primaries begin in earnest early next year, however, that stance will be increasingly difficult to maintain.

  Current issues include the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and US relations with Russia -- both of which are in the headlines but would seem to be distant from Taiwan concerns. Two others are less in the headlines but are easier to recognize as being of more direct concern: WTO entry for China and the Taiwan Security Enactment Act (TSEA). In fact, all of them have some relevance to Taiwan's interests.

  The signing of the CTBT by the US is supported by important domestic constituencies that see this as an important step in curbing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. It is also supported by a great many governments around the world with the same motivation, but who do not carry the international responsibilities the US does. While the ratification process in the US Senate is being played out in this pre-election campaign period with a very strong dose of domestic politics, there is also behind it an important, largely non-partisan debate on how the treaty would impact the US security role worldwide, including, of course, the western Pacific.

  The commentary on the US relationship with Russia focuses on corruption and the misuse of both US and IMF aid funds. Behind this, differences exist on whether Russia is friend or foe (similar to the US relationship with China, but much less intense). As the Russian military effort against Chechnya grows, it also is becoming entwined in this debate. While the Chechnya-Russia issue can by no means be compared to cross-strait differences, the issue is a part of the growing debate on the rules for international intervention and the limits of sovereignty, which are matters of some concern to Taiwan.

  WTO entry for China, on the other hand, is more obviously an issue of direct relevance to Taiwan. It is not capturing much media attention, however, because there has been little movement toward resuming negotiations. A short meeting in Washington at the end of last month resulted in no negotiations or even a date when they would begin again. Another meeting took place in Geneva with the European Union, which followed the same script. From Beijing, optimism is expressed by the chief WTO negotiator that it can be done, but of course on terms that Washington claims are unacceptable.

  It is clear that Beijing believes last minute bargaining, very close to the end of November, offers it the best opportunity to gain entry into WTO at the least cost in concessions. From the Washington standpoint, there is heavy lobbying by most of the business community to prove them right. Important elements of that same business community, who would not have benefited even under the terms Washington claims were offered by Zhu Rongji, succeeded last April in derailing the agreement. Its not likely they could do so again, given the political fallout that resulted. So the administration may have more flexibility, but the remaining question is: will that also be the case with the Congress?

  The mixture of factors that will determine how Congress reacts, and the importance of that to the coming election campaign, is anything but clear. Yet the Clinton administration must take this into account. There are a whole range of China-connected issues pending in Congress that will inevitably be raised: spying, fundraising, non-proliferation, human rights, Taiwan, of course, and security in the western Pacific. All of them are potential campaign issues. To what degree they can be overcome by the intense lobbying of pro-accession business is a judgment the administration will have to make before agreeing to a package for China's WTO accession.

  The Taiwan issue, with the exception of one article in The Washington Post, has received little attention in the US media. In the administration, however, it was recognized as a potential problem when it was introduced several weeks ago by the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Jesse Helms. It also was recognized as more than a pro-Taiwan resolution, of which there have been many with only a marginal effect, but one having a strong domestic political motive. However, the Clinton administration's view was that the breadth of arms sales and communications that the Act was proposing was so large, in one package, that it would be seen by the majority in Congress as too provocative.

  Hearings were held in the Senate, a similar bill was tabled in the House of Representatives, and hearings were held there as well. At both hearings, the administration made clear its opposition to the legislation, and one report claims the business community was joining in the lobbying against the Act. The latter is based on preventing this legislation from interfering in the China WTO debate, however; a support that may not continue once WTO for China is agreed upon.

  The support for this Act, on the other hand, has engendered a strange mix of lobbyists. Not only do they reflect the US domestic political and security spectrum of interests, but also the mosaic of political views that reflect those found in democratic Taiwan. The Act will be difficult to pass, given its obvious potential for seriously provoking Beijing. Ironically, the existence of this proposed legislation already has been used by the Clinton administration in encouraging moderation on the part of China in its relationship with Taiwan. Some say that if it does not get enacted, it should remain on the Congressional table in some form, just for that purpose.

  In the meantime, the furor over President Lee Teng-hui's statement of state-to-state relations has considerably subsided; the tragedy of the 921 earthquake had much to do with that. Harsh statements out of Beijing, the obvious efforts being made to influence the US-Taiwan relationship, and the attitude problem in trying to communicate with the people of Taiwan, has also contributed. With its first priority of coping with the results of the earthquake, and then its upcoming elections, Taiwan will not be much the focus of events in the US. But with all the issues being addressed and debated over many months, the subject of Taiwan will not be lacking attention in Washington.

  Nat Bellocchi is a former chairman of AIT and a special advisor to the Liberty Times Group.
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