In his successful campaign for a second term of office, former US President Ronald Reagan asked voters: "Are you better off now than four years ago?"
My recent trip to East Asia -- which included many conversations with friends and former students who have lived in China -- confirms my suspicions that the Reagan tactic would fail if the Chinese were asked: "Are you better off now than fifty years ago?"
It is clear that many of the Communist Party's members, the military, the secret police and the nouveau riche would nod and bow "yes" to the question. But a large number of Chinese would wonder what all the fuss is about concerning the Oct. 1 parade extolling the 50th year of Communist rule.
Dave Davies, one of my former students who recently returned from Beijing, related that the generation born around the time of China's so-called "liberation" in 1949 self-pityingly call themselves the "and then, and then" generation.
They were about ten years old in 1959. The decade 1949-59 brought relative calm to China after a century of war and revolution.
Despite the grim lives of veterans from the Korean War and a few intellectuals tricked into expressing their reservations about Communist rule which resulted in long imprisonments, the youth of China were happy. The future looked good.
And then came the horrible agricultural reforms of collectivization and the building of nationwide communes. During this time, families were broken up and the agricultural disasters led to famine and widespread economic failures.
By the early 1960s, this generation was just starting to think about high school and college.
And then came the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution and the Gang of Four. In the decade from 1966-76, universities were shut down, and the urban youth of China was sent into the countryside where they suffered severe physical and mental deprivation.
The economy once again slid downhill resulting in, perhaps, 20 million deaths due to starvation, political warfare or personal acts of revenge. The Democracy Wall demonstrations that occurred after this period of carnage provided hope that human rights, democracy and social freedoms could finally be found in the new China.
And then came the economic policies of Deng Xiaoping (
At first, rural wealth appeared miraculous. But the slogans that glorified wealth over everything else alienated many Chinese from the traditions of their parents and the ideals of their own upbringing. Egalitarianism, honesty, personal security, loyalty, filial piety seemingly disappeared from the new order. Many Chinese who studied abroad during this period returned home to find China had completely changed. Disheartened, many sought to live abroad and not return home. But many became engaged in the multiple opportunities for becoming rich.
And then came the one-child policy. During the spectacular period of economic growth, there were limits on childbirth. Government policy limited childbirth to just one child per family. The negative results were horrifying: infant girls were killed in order to allow for another chance to produce a male; abortions of a second infant were a matter of everyday action in some areas.
In addition to this, there was a great economic crisis in the countryside, where tens of millions were unemployed, and which resulted in reforms in government financing for social problems. Just when the generation of 1949 was beginning to think of retirement, the government cut back on pensions, public health care, retirement benefits and unemployment payments. Now there was only one child to take care of the two sets of grandparents and the parents. And that child might be unemployed, sick or in absentia. Yet, the world still was appealing. After all, the Communist Party was publicizing reforms, local elections, cultural freedom and economic opportunities. Even the military seemed to be a friend of the people.
And then there was the massacre of students at Tiananmen Square. Deng Xiaoping praised the army for its heroic deeds. The government began yet another campaign to control the people -- the goal this time was to support Chinese nationalism by preparing the people to sacrifice in the fight to regain Taiwan.
The government became aware that the 49ers were no longer happy and could be controlled. Tiananmen Square became sealed off from protest. The 50th anniversary parade was mainly a TV event.
Only people who live on, or within, the proximity of the celebratory march could actually see the tanks, the foreign dignitaries, and the leadership pass by. The rest of the residents of Beijing could only see it on the tube or read it in the papers.
Throughout the country, the security forces are watching the demonstrators. The party has passed out 50 authorized slogans that could be chanted during the ceremonies. Spontaneous slogans were banned.
And then there was the quiet and peaceful, yet secret and unauthorized, demonstration of 20,000 followers of the spiritual and therapeutic Falun Gong (
They sought a spiritual answer to the economic successes in China, they sought ways to heal their bodies and their psyches, and they sought for non-party solutions to their problems.
They are not the only group to stand up to the Communist Party. Last year, Dave Davies reported multiple marches and demonstrations every week at government agencies demanding jobs, unemployment payments, pensions and health care.
Whereas pundits and business executives in the US praise the 50th anniversary party in Beijing, readers should ask: "What would happen if the Chinese people could register their opinions on whether this is a day for celebration? And then, what would come next?"
Richard Kagan is a professor at Hamline University in the US.
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