The El Nino weather phenomenon has in recent years been the subject of much media attention. Now, as we prepare to enter a new millennium, the impact on the global environment from El Nino is the subject of hot debate among scientists.
Scholars from around the world are about to converge on an area seriously affected by El Nino -- Thailand -- to hold a meeting about how to react to and prepare for the low crop yields and damage caused by droughts or flooding.
Yet, in Taiwan, changes of a different nature are under way: the deregulation of land zoned for agricultural purposes.
Recent changes in global weather patterns -- the focus of the meeting in Thailand -- are perhaps mere abnormalities in the climate cycle, rendering them virtually impossible to predict or control.
The policies of Taiwan's government, on the other hand, are calculated changes to the environment. The impacts of these changes are controllable, and the government should be able to reduce the negative influence of the changes.
If agricultural land is deregulated, however, it will likely lead to an environmental disaster of unpredictable proportions in Taiwan.
According to the MOEA's Bureau of Water Management, at high tide, 20 percent of land in Taiwan is below sea-level.
The land has sunk because aquaculture firms were set up on what was previously agricultural land. The fisheries pumped massive amounts of groundwater up to the surface to fill their ponds, causing the land to sink.
It was improper land policy that caused the land to sink, a problem that is becoming more severe. If more agricultural land is deregulated, and the government is unable to fully regulate the future use of the land, then it is inevitable that more problems will appear.
Some inkling of what might happen can be seen in cases in the Taoyuan/Hsinchu area, where gravel companies extract sand and gravel from agricultural land, and refill the empty space with garbage.
The government has announced that it will strictly control the use of agricultural lands after they are deregulated, but the government's track record on similar issues offers little to reassure the public.
After land began to sink because of excessive ground water pumping, the Bureau of Water Management issued a warning, and instructed local governments to stop all aquaculture firms from pumping ground water.
The order was given just before an election, however, and local governments decided to overlook the order in their own interests.
Farmland is very effective at containing floodwaters and storing groundwater. If a serious storm strikes, farmland is able to soak up a good portion of the overflow, while allowing the water to sink into the underground water supply.
This lowers floodwater peaks, and diverts floodwater into underground reservoirs.
Factories on the west coast use even more water from underground reservoirs than aquaculture does. If the government carries out its deregulation policy, then the problem of sinking land is bound to get worse.
The misguided policy of deregulating agricultural land may also end up affecting the environment in urban areas as well. The policy would reduce the amount of water that enters underground reser-voirs. Storm runoff would increase, and this would lead to changes in the underground water table. Nutrient and pollution levels in rivers would rise, and rivers' self-purification abilities would be lessened.
Marginal land and agricultural land should only be included in urban development plans after the impact on the environment as a whole has been clearly determined.
Any development should take into consideration the sensitivities of special types of lands, such as protected watershed areas or river systems. In the case of marshes or lagoons, the destruction of the fragile ecosystems is permanent and irreversible. We hope that the government will come up with an integrated system of land management, instead of deregulating agricultural land in the interest of particular sectors.
If the government insists on carrying out the deregulation, then we hope the authorities will strictly implement land use and protect the nation's land resources. Only in this way can we escape land degradation, desertification and salinization, and ensure sustainable land use.
Spencer Chen is the chairman of the Taiwan Association of Hydraulic Engineers.
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