Tue, May 28, 2002 page19

• Let's hope Bono finds what he's looking for

  The Irish rocker is taking on the global HIV/AIDS crisis, which economists such as Harvard University's Jeffrey Sachs say threatens the growth of the world economy

  • By William Pesek Jr / BLOOMBERG
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  It's a generally accepted truth that China lies about how fast its economy is growing. Far more insidious, however, is the government's accounting of its HIV/AIDS crisis.

  By China's count, 850,000 of its 1.3 billion people have HIV.

  

  Irish rock star Bono and former South African president Nelson Mandela pose at Mandela's home in Johannesburg.

  PHOTO : AFP

  Observers, including the UN, put the figure higher, much higher, and warn China will have 10 million sufferers by 2010. AIDS activist organizations think the UN's numbers are still too low.

  "These are not subjects politicians like to talk about," says Harvard University economist Jeffrey Sachs. "But they are a matter of life and death for millions of people." Sachs runs Harvard's Center for International Development, and has long been arguing what many are only now realizing -- AIDS isn't just a health issue, but an economic one of mammoth proportions. It will weigh exponentially on global growth in the years ahead, not just in Africa, where AIDS has become an epidemic, but everywhere.

  That explains why finance ministers and central bankers include HIV/AIDS in discussions about the international economy. Lawmakers from Washington to London mull options to deal with the epidemic. No longer is HIV/AIDS a peripheral concern for economists. Today, it stands as THE issue for many developing economies.

  What's happening in many African countries is causing the rest of the world to wake up. In China, the impact of HIV/AIDS is no longer supposition but reality. While Beijing seems in denial about the magnitude of its problem, it's now being viewed from the perspective of state security and prosperity. For good reason, too.

  Sachs visited China this month to urge officials to get serious about stopping the spread of HIV/AIDS. If they don't, he argues, the epidemic will derail the nation's economy. And Asia's. "Asia is at risk of a profound increase in HIV/AIDS which needs to be addressed before it explodes," he warns.

  The good news is that one of Sachs' proteges -- rock star Bono -- is making lots of noise about HIV/AIDS, and getting lots of attention, too. Bono's latest touring partner isn't U2 guitarist The Edge, but Paul O'Neill, the 66-year-old US Treasury secretary.

  The unlikely duo are trekking through Africa for a first-hand look at the region's poverty and sickness -- and what rich countries can do to alleviate it.

  Bono and O'Neill's tour took them to South Africa last week.

  The nation of about 44 million is the epicenter of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, with at least one in nine South Africans suffering the deadly virus. It's also at ground zero of the economic effects of HIV/AIDS.

  Average life expectancy is projected to fall from about 60 years to 40 by 2008. In Kenya, illness and death have surpassed retirement as the most common reason people leave work.

  Africa's experience offers a case study on the economic effects of the pandemic. By attacking people in their most productive years, HIV/AIDS is a huge and fast-growing strain on prosperity.

  Scientists believe Asia -- a region far more connected to the global economy -- will be the epicenter of a fast-worsening HIV/AIDS crisis in the next 15 years.

  The UN has warned HIV/AIDS is reaching epidemic proportions in parts of the region. The newest threats, the UN said, are in China and India. With 3.5 million cases, India is second only to South Africa. China, given its massive population, is a major concern.

  Cases are also rising in Cambodia, Myanmar and Thailand. HIV/AIDS is spreading in the former Soviet states and Latin America.

  Once the epidemic takes greater hold of Asia, the risk is that a similarly vicious cycle unfolds. "It's time to really break the conspiracy of silence in Asia," says Michel Sidibe, a director at UNAIDS. "It would certainly completely change the face of the pandemic in this part of the world."

  Bono's taken considerable heat for his efforts, which critics think is driven more by ego than compassion. But why not give Bono some credit? What matters is that he has gotten the attention of key Americans -- like O'Neill -- who decide how much money goes toward fighting HIV/AIDS and poverty. He's won over the likes of Senator Jesse Helms, the conservative North Carolina Republican who in the past dismissed foreign aid as "a rat hole." That's no small feat.

  Increased funding and more aggressive efforts to halt the spread of HIV/AIDS could boost global growth. Anyone who thinks HIV/AIDS isn't a concern for markets ought to reconsider. Bacteria don't respect national borders and immigration controls. That's why stopping the spread of HIV/AIDS is so crucial.

  Caring for the sick, dying and orphaned strains state budgets, adds to poverty, reduces labor forces and boosts crime. Social and economic unrest can devolve into violence and civil wars into which allies and neighbors can be drawn. This can have implications for markets. If such instability travels to more developed markets -- like those in Asia -- more investors will feel the effects.

  Bono once sang that he still hadn't found what he was looking for. When it comes to dealing with the HIV/AIDS pandemic, let's hope he does.
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