Gilbert Yung glances up at the television screen as he nurses his espresso. Unfolding before him are the latest scenes of the US-led attacks on Afghanistan, along with clips of President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair denouncing terrorism. He can't help but sigh.
"I'd be lying if I said I wasn't losing sleep at night over this whole affair," explains Yung, a 51-year old software executive lunching in a cafe. "It's important to get rid of terrorism, but I can't help but worry the West's war on terrorism will only make things worse, especially here in Asia."
Yung's view is hardly unique throughout the region. There's little, if any, sympathy for Osama bin Laden or the Taliban -- quite the opposite. Across Asia, images of jets toppling New York's World Trade Center towers and hitting the Pentagon bring tears to the eyes of many and offer more questions than answers about the future safety of Asia's billions of inhabitants.
Yet while virtually all of the region's governments publicly support the war on terrorism, it comes with some caveats, and big ones at that. One is fear that the US-led retaliation will provoke additional terrorist attacks, especially in Asia. The continent is home to a not inconsequential number of the world's Muslims and is no stranger to violence at the hands of religious extremists.
Economists point out that prior to Oct. 7, when US and British planes began bombing Afghanistan, Muslims weren't rioting in the streets of Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur and in parts of the Philippines. East Asia has had lots of experience with religious extremism and terrorism, but right now, all hell seems to be breaking loose. Making things worse is that the unrest is coming at a time when the global slowdown is hitting Asia's economies hard.
"The uncertainty factor is huge these days," says Irmak Surenkok, an economist at Primasia Securities Co.
Rarely has there been a greater need for Asia's policy makers to put their heads together and act to stabilize their economies.
Much of East Asia is experiencing its worst slowdown in decades.
Unfortunately, this week's meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders in Shanghai may not offer that opportunity. It looks as if it'll be hijacked by terrorists, too.
It's no mystery that the US plans to use the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum to shore up support for its war against terrorism. And for good reason. Many of APEC's 20 other members are of great strategic importance to the exercise. Leaders of Muslim nations like Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei, for example, will be on hand.
The prime minister of Malaysia criticized the US-led air strikes in Afghanistan and the president of Indonesia -- the world's most populous Muslim nation -- has begun doing so. Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta are experiencing increased social unrest and Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and President Megawati Soekarnoputri are under growing pressure to break ranks with Washington.
Meanwhile, the US seems to be discovering a new suspected anthrax case every minute. With bombs still falling in Central Asia and questions about where they'll fall next, it'll be hard for officials in Shanghai to make real progress on trade or investment issues. And with leaders worried that their local postal systems are being used as biological weapons delivery systems, there mightn't be much time for chats about nitty gritty tariffs.
China, of course, wants economic issues to dominate APEC.
After all, the world's fastest-growing economy has been looking forward to this opportunity to show off Shanghai and its development as a nation. It's spared no expense -- the city's mayor says it spent US$36 million -- getting Shanghai ready for the event.
Beijing also is worried about the global slowdown. The nation's expansion slowed to 7 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier. While China's growth rate is the envy of the world, slowing global economics is sapping demand for exports and things may only get worse. Hence Beijing's desire to keep APEC focused on economic matters.
Yet the economic issues Asia so much needs to discuss are being eclipsed by concerns about global security. That's a blow to the region, considering its economies are rapidly going from bad to worse. At the height of the 1997 and 1998 financial crisis, few envisioned things could get worse for the region. Now that the US and Japan are heading into recession in tandem, they have indeed.
During the APEC gatherings in Vancouver in 1997 and Auckland in 1998, leaders took solace in the fact the US economy was booming and Japan was showing signs of stabilizing. The insatiable demand of US consumers helped Asia snap back. Growth picked up and currencies and stocks rose, enticing investors to return more quickly than just about anyone expected. This time Asia is on its own.
Even before the Sept. 11 attacks on the US and Washington, Asia was in trouble. Thanks to the bursting of the US stock bubble, many of the region's economies have found themselves on the edge of recession. Economies from Japan to Singapore are shrinking and Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand are heading that way.
The fact the US -- Asia's biggest export market -- is sliding raises the stakes for the continent.
Last month's terrorist attacks on the US and more recent anthrax cases couldn't have come at a worse time. Making matters worse, Asia fears it will be the next phase of the war on terrorism. While the anti-terrorism coalition in bombing Afghanistan right now, there's little doubt that it's increasingly looking eastward.
On Sept. 30, President Bush released his first Quadrennial Defense Review Report. The document spelled a shift in focus, and possible deployment of US military personnel, from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region. Since then, news reports revealed that US forces are considering widening their anti-terrorism campaign to East Asia. Folks here worry that doing so will only stir up more activism on the part of religious extremists.
"The fear is that a pickup of military attacks on Afghanistan will trigger a negative reaction throughout the markets for fear of terrorist retaliation," explains Ashraf Laidi, senior currency analyst with MG Financial Group.
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