Chen Shui-bian (
He also, it has been claimed with some justification, doesn't have a clue about how to deal with the foreign business community. He cracks jokes about red light districts over lunch with AmCham members. He employs valiant but weak English translators. He has his Washington itineraries planned by non-Americans.
But his worst sin of all, apparently, is that he can't really "talk the talk" when it comes to finance and economics.
Given his speech this past week at the DPP's China policy conference, it's hard to disagree on this point.
Let's see, Chen wants to have Taiwan airlines fly directly to China and split the profits with Beijing. Please, somebody, hand me that cane they use to haul floundering stand-up comedians off the stage.
He also wants to create a free trade zone between Taiwan and China, but only if it doesn't endanger national security. It would probably be more feasible to legalize the smuggling trade.
He thinks we should forget about putting restrictions on big-ticket investment on the mainland. Obviously, he must be the only person on this island who takes the "no haste, be patient" policy seriously.
He wants to put an end to black gold politics, and he wants to deregulate and liberalize the economy quicker while at the same time strengthening its "backbone," the small and medium enterprises. He wants to ... hang on, what did you say? Run that by me again. He wants to what? Open up the economy by bringing in more foreign investment and allowing an expansion of foreign trade, allowing market forces to do what regulations cannot? That doesn't sound like the Chen Shui-bian of days gone by. It makes too much sense.
Okay, so somebody scripted those lines for him. But doesn't every capable politician have that done for them? Of course they do. The only difference is that some manage to actually live up to what speechwriters are committing them to. And on past experience, Chen comes out miles ahead of the other two contenders for Lee Teng-hui's (
No, he doesn't have a PhD from a prestigious American university like Lien Chan (3s戰) and James Soong (宋楚瑜) do and no, he doesn't speak "flawless English" like the two of them do in the presence of foreign business executives. But when it comes to cutting through red tape and meeting administrative objectives, Chen has both of them beat.
One need only look at what Soong did to the provincial government's finances to know that his election to the presidency would be a disaster for the economy. Lien, meanwhile, has the Asia-Pacific Regional Operations Center plan to show for his capabilities as an economic libertarian. Last time I looked, the European Council for Commerce and Trade had its APROC Clock only up to the half-hour. Sorry, but halfway there just doesn't impress.
Until recently, though, I'll admit that I had been buying into the baloney put about by the pro-status quo camp, that Taiwan was not yet ready for Chen, and that Lien was the man who could be trusted not to rock the boat. But then this week it became clear again. How can foreign business representatives, for instance, speak profoundly about the need for clean, efficient government in Taiwan while at the same time say they fear the change that a Chen administration would bring?
The thing is, you don't need to like Chen's sense of humor. And, frankly, no one should really care too much about what he says on the topics of economics and finance. He's a reformer, he's a proven administrator, and he's a champion of the little guy who prefers level playing fields. What more could the foreign business community ask for in a president? We're not electing the chairman of the Council for Economic Planning and Development here, you know.
But don't worry, I hear you. Someone with a bit more global-mindedness and who is a bit less self-possessed would be nice. Someone who would not have Washington and Beijing reaching for the hotline every time they deliver a major speech. Then again, how could Chen be any different from the incumbent, and Taiwan's economy seems to have done well under him? And besides, there is a superpower in the world that loves Chen -- the one that gets most of its fuel supplies delivered through the Taiwan Strait. Keeping Tokyo happy should be at least half of the foreign affairs work required of a Taiwan president, and Chen knows it.
Well then, how about someone who can work within the existing system a bit better, just so that the stock market doesn't go up in flames when Chen decides to start settling scores with KMT-run companies? You mean, like he did at the Taipei City Government when he took over in 1994, managing to turn long-time KMT stalwarts into "Taipei-first servants?" Or how about that deal he struck with the KMT-run China Development Bank (then, it was a corporation) to start building the International Financial Center?
Enough already of the cheerleading. Chen has a lot of faults, not the least of which is that he's a member of the DPP, the most common-sensibly challenged party you could ever ask to meet. It is also a big jump from City Hall to the Presidential Office, and Chen does not have enough gray around his temples to qualify for the wizened, chastened-by-life category. He's a populist, and populists tend not to live up to promises made to foreign businesses. Chen, don't forget, backed Taichung County commissioner Liao Yung-lai two years ago in his opposition to German chemical giant Bayer being granted a license to build its plant in Taichung Port (good thing it didn't, by the way, considering the damage that was done to the port by the 921 earthquake).
As you can see, therefore, it's not easy to stand by your rhetoric, even for the foreign business community. Chen, in theory, is a presidential candidate who says he is prepared to do something about all those "concerns" raised in the AmCham and ECCT position papers. But can he be trusted not to go too far? After all, a lot of foreign businesses have done very well over the years by learning to adjust to the KMT's way of doing things.
It's a tough call, indeed, so don't expect me to make it for you. But you want some advice? Go and ask the owners of some small and medium enterprises in Pingtung County what they want in a president, and who they are voting for. And don't believe what you read in the papers.
Anthony Lawrance is the mana-ging editor of the Taipei Times.
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