The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.23 percent last month from a year earlier, the lowest rate of increase in 56 months as easing international crude oil and commodity prices along with stable weather helped contain food prices, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said yesterday.
The reading has been below the central bank’s 2 percent target for seven consecutive months, theoretically giving policymakers room to lower interest rates.
However, the central bank is widely expected to keep policy unchanged at its board meeting next week, given projections that Taiwan’s stronger-than-expected GDP growth of more than 7 percent this year would lower the need for monetary easing.
Photo: CNA
DGBAS official Tsao Chih-hung (曹志弘) said that although egg and pork prices posted sizeable annual increases, the effect was offset by greater vegetable supply and slower growth in rents.
Inflation this month is likely to be below 1.5 percent, as last year’s vegetable prices were elevated by bad weather, creating a high comparison base.
Core CPI — the central bank’s favored measure of underlying inflation as it excludes volatile food and energy prices — this month is expected to stay near last month’s 1.72 percent annual increase, Tsao said.
Despite easing headline inflation, prices for key consumer staples climbed 2.76 percent from a year earlier, rising for the sixth consecutive month and hitting a 21-month high, he said.
Egg prices surged 15.33 percent, the fastest pace in nearly 31 months, due to weather effects and a low base last year, while pork prices increased 8.7 percent, slower than October, but still elevated, he said.
Meanwhile, prices of more than 60 percent of items in the CPI basket increased, Tsao said.
Dining-out costs have risen more than 3 percent for each of the past 13 months, contributing to the public’s perception of persistent inflation, he said.
By category, food, housing, medical care and miscellaneous goods all posted modest annual increases, he said.
Housing costs inched up due to rents and electricity fees, while medical and personal services also had mild gains, he said.
Transportation and communications remained the main source of deflation, with falling global oil prices pushing fuel and vehicle costs down, despite higher maintenance expenses and train fares, he said.
Overall, most categories showed only limited increases, reinforcing the view that price pressures are softening, Tsao said, citing the rental component, which rose 2.02 percent, the smallest gain in 27 months.
Tsao attributed the slowdown to softer property prices filtering into the rental market, easing the upward pressure created by consumer prices, maintenance costs and home prices.
Separately, the producer price index (PPI) fell 2.8 percent last month from a year earlier, dragged down by lower prices for agricultural products, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, petroleum and basic metals, the DGBAS said.
For the first 11 months of this year, the CPI grew 1.69 percent, while the PPI declined 1.79 percent, the agency added.
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