The Geneva watch fair opened on Monday, buoyed by booming growth in the watchmaking industry, but insiders warily eyed the banking sector turmoil, evoking painful memories of the 2008 global financial crisis.
Industry professionals were upbeat on the first day of the Watches and Wonders annual fair, where 48 prestigious brands including Rolex SA, Patek Philippe SA and Cartier International SNC were showing off their new creations.
The fair, which runs until Sunday with the weekend open to the public, started after two years of record gains for Swiss watchmakers.
Photo: AFP
Exports soared by 31.2 percent in 2021, after a strong rebound in sales in the US and the Middle East.
The return of luxury tourism to Europe last year after two years of COVID-19 disruptions pushed exports up a further 11.4 percent to 24.8 billion Swiss francs (US$27.02 billion).
The growth has also continued this year, with exports up by another 10.6 percent during the first two months of this year, Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry data showed.
Photo: AFP
Optimism at the Geneva fair was somewhat dampened by the angst surrounding the turbulence currently lashing the banking sector.
Switzerland, whose vibrant banking scene is a key part of the country’s economy and culture, has been rocked after the government strong-armed the nation’s biggest bank UBS Group AG into swallowing up its troubled competitor Credit Suisse Group AG, in a bid to ward off a larger global banking crisis.
The upheaval has brought back difficult memories for Swiss watchmakers.
After the 2008 round of bank failures sparked a global financial crisis, Swiss watch exports plunged 22.3 percent in 2009 — more even than during COVID-19-dominated 2020.
Analysts say there is little reason to panic just yet.
“For now, I would expect the impact to be muted,” said Jon Cox, an industry analyst at the financial services company Kepler Cheuvreux, adding that he still expects growth this year of about 10 percent in exports.
However, the Credit Suisse debacle, which threatens tens of thousands of jobs in the financial sector, could take its toll.
“The financial community is an important part of the buying public for the watch industry and there could be impact in local markets, such as Switzerland, on domestic business,” Cox said, adding that “this is likely to be offset by tourism.”
For now, Swiss watchmakers are looking toward the Chinese market to pick up pace and ensure their export growth this year.
When demand was exploding in other markets as they rolled back pandemic protection measures, the watch market in China remained subdued as the country ploughed on with its “zero COVID-19” rules, and then saw infection numbers explode when it abruptly ended that policy late last year.
Watchmakers and experts are expecting that to change with the reopening of the Chinese economy.
However, Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst with Swiss investment managers Vontobel AG, said that “a return to normalcy” for Chinese watch sales — traditionally Swiss watchmakers’ largest market — will take time.
On the positive side, he said that he was confident, given “the level of savings the Chinese had set aside during the health restrictions.”
As for tourism, he said that while Chinese travelers might quickly flock to Asian destinations, “it will take more time before they return to Europe,” due to the continued limited air transport capacity and visa backlogs.
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