A sharp rebound in Indian stocks this quarter has just seen their weighting rise to the second spot in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, trailing only China’s.
With 108 members, India’s country weight stands at 14.483 percent as of last month, MSCI data showed.
That is a whisker above 14.48 percent for Taiwan, which has 84 companies in the MSCI EM gauge, including the most-weighted Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (台積電). China continues to dominate with about a third of the index weighting.
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India’s S&P BSE Sensex has jumped 11 percent this quarter, the world’s best performance among national benchmarks in countries with a stock market value of at least US$1 trillion, data showed.
Driven by a retail investing boom, Indian stocks were the world’s best performers between early 2020 and October last year. Thereafter, rising concerns about aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve caused foreign investors to withdraw a record US$33 billion from local shares in the nine months through June.
Overseas funds have been strong this quarter, pumping in US$7.6 billion and supercharging the market. The Sensex is now less than 5 percent away from its all-time high reached in October last year.
There has been a big variance in China and India weightings in the emerging market gauge over the past two years as their market performance diverged — with a regulatory crackdown and stringent COVID-19 curbs causing investors to flee Chinese stocks.
While China’s weighting has fallen 9 percentage points since August 2020, India’s has jumped more than 6 points, the data showed.
“Economic impact of China’s lockdown and the ‘zero COVID’ policy is being seen now, while India is emerging stronger month-by-month,” Alder Capital Partners LP investment manager Rakhi Prasad said. “India’s weight in the emerging markets can be higher, but how much it goes from here will depend on its economy’s performance.”
As global equities struggle after the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric, Southeast Asia’s growth outlook is making the region an investor favorite.
The benchmark MSCI ASEAN Index has fared much better than the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index, and is set to outperform a gauge of global stocks for a third straight quarter.
“We are remaining focused on India and Southeast Asia markets,” BNP Paribas SA head of Asia Pacific equity research Manishi Raychaudhuri said. “These are not only growing in terms of economic revival post-COVID, but also strongly growing in terms of the earnings estimates.”
Such views are echoed by Credit Suisse Group AG strategists, who in a note last week said they remain overweight on ASEAN, with their favorite market being Thailand. South Korea and Taiwan are their biggest underweights.
Most of the region’s biggest economies are expected to grow at least 5 percent this year, Bloomberg estimates showed, with the scrapping of pandemic-era restrictions offering a key boost.
The composition of Southeast Asia’s equity benchmarks — low tech weighting and a relatively high ratio of bank shares — is also favorable in a rising global interest-rate environment.
Forward earnings estimates for MSCI’s Southeast Asia gauge gained nearly 4 percent since the start of the quarter, amid a 1.5 percent decline for the world index.
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