The US continued to slash estimates for Ukraine’s grain exports as sea routes were curbed following Russia’s invasion.
Ukraine’s corn exports would drop by another 4.08 million tonnes to 20.87 million tonnes and wheat exports by 907,185 tonnes, the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) closely watched World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates said.
Global wheat stockpiles were revised down to 252.56 million tonnes, less than expected by a Bloomberg survey.
Photo: AP
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is upending trade flows out of the critical Black Sea breadbasket region, prompting warnings of food shortages as crucial supplies of wheat, corn and cooking oils are at risk. Food prices are surging at the fastest clip ever and worsening world hunger, putting pressure on other big growing areas to produce big crops this year.
“There’s an increased possibility of the conflict getting out of hand again. Peace is not coming any time soon,” said Jack Scoville, an analyst at Price Futures Group Inc in Chicago.
Grain and oilseed futures have jumped to record or near record highs, and also caused a spike in prices of farm necessities such as fertilizer and fuel.
Meanwhile, weather woes and inflation in key producers such as the US and Brazil are clouding the outlook for this year’s crop supplies.
While the USDA raised its forecast for Brazil’s current corn crop more than expected, the real test is to unfold over the next several weeks. This month is a critical growing period for the grain, and if adequate rains do not arrive in time, it could crimp yields.
Most-active corn futures in Chicago briefly plunged after the US report hit, but quickly bounced back to settle 1.4 percent higher at US$7.6075 a bushel.
Benchmark wheat rose 3.2 percent to US$10.5825 a bushel and soybeans jumped 2.6 percent to reach US$16.89.
Prices had been up prior to the report’s release amid news that Russia bombed a major rail evacuation hub in Ukraine, killing dozens of people.
To see how significantly the war is upending crop flows from Ukraine, its corn stockpiles tell the story. The war has left the country saddled with huge amounts of grain that it is largely unable to move. With its ports shut, Ukraine is working to ramp up exports via rail, but the flows remain well below normal seaborne trade.
The chaos in the Black Sea so far has not led to a jump in US grain exports, although there were signs of fresh corn demand this week when China scooped up 997,903 tonnes, the Asian nation’s biggest such buy in almost a year.
Besides the worsening war that is affecting Black Sea exports, the report was bearish, with no changes to US corn reserves, bigger wheat supplies and a smaller-than-expected cut in US soybeans stockpiles, said Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser at Total Farm Marketing in Wisconsin.
Shifts in the soybean markets are also under way.
The report raised US exports while lowering shipments out of Brazil, as well as Ukraine and Russia.
South American soybean crops are down a combined 29.94 million tonnes below initial estimates from November last year, which marks a record loss for the region after a drought caused by La Nina weather patterns. With that cut in production, the smaller South American exports would drive more demand to the US for summer and early fall.
Bigger US exports are likely to shrink end-season US soybean stockpiles by 8.8 percent, the largest decline in the month of April since 2012. It is an unusual move, because supplies in the US are typically well-known at this time of year.
Other commodities:
‧Gold for June delivery rose US$7.80 to US $1,945.60 an ounce.
‧Silver for May delivery rose US$0.09 to US$24.82 an ounce, while May copper rose US$0.03 to US$4.73 a pound.
Additional reporting by AP
Japanese technology giant Softbank Group Corp said Tuesday it has sold its stake in Nvidia Corp, raising US$5.8 billion to pour into other investments. It also reported its profit nearly tripled in the first half of this fiscal year from a year earlier. Tokyo-based Softbank said it sold the stake in Silicon Vally-based Nvidia last month, a move that reflects its shift in focus to OpenAI, owner of the artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot ChatGPT. Softbank reported its profit in the April-to-September period soared to about 2.5 trillion yen (about US$13 billion). Its sales for the six month period rose 7.7 percent year-on-year
JITTERS: Nexperia has a 20 percent market share for chips powering simpler features such as window controls, and changing supply chains could take years European carmakers are looking into ways to scratch components made with parts from China, spooked by deepening geopolitical spats playing out through chipmaker Nexperia BV and Beijing’s export controls on rare earths. To protect operations from trade ructions, several automakers are pushing major suppliers to find permanent alternatives to Chinese semiconductors, people familiar with the matter said. The industry is considering broader changes to its supply chain to adapt to shifting geopolitics, Europe’s main suppliers lobby CLEPA head Matthias Zink said. “We had some indications already — questions like: ‘How can you supply me without this dependency on China?’” Zink, who also
CRESTING WAVE: Companies are still buying in, but the shivers in the market could be the first signs that the AI wave has peaked and the collapse is upon the world Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) yesterday reported a new monthly record of NT$367.47 billion (US$11.85 billion) in consolidated sales for last month thanks to global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications. Last month’s figure represented 16.9 percent annual growth, the slowest pace since February last year. On a monthly basis, sales rose 11 percent. Cumulative sales in the first 10 months of the year grew 33.8 percent year-on-year to NT$3.13 trillion, a record for the same period in the company’s history. However, the slowing growth in monthly sales last month highlights uncertainty over the sustainability of the AI boom even as
At least US$50 million for the freedom of an Emirati sheikh: That is the king’s ransom paid two weeks ago to militants linked to al-Qaeda who are pushing to topple the Malian government and impose Islamic law. Alongside a crippling fuel blockade, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) has made kidnapping wealthy foreigners for a ransom a pillar of its strategy of “economic jihad.” Its goal: Oust the junta, which has struggled to contain Mali’s decade-long insurgency since taking power following back-to-back coups in 2020 and 2021, by scaring away investors and paralyzing the west African country’s economy.
RSS