Thailand’s economy grew faster than expected last quarter, buoyed by rising exports and tourist arrivals, firming its recovery as it faces risks this year from inflation and the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2.
GDP during the October-to-December quarter rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier, the Thai National Economic and Social Development Council said yesterday.
That beat the median growth estimate of 0.8 percent in a Bloomberg survey, and compares with the prior quarter’s revised 0.2 percent contraction.
Photo: Bloomberg
The council maintained its 3.5 to 4.5 percent GDP expansion outlook for this year, while raising its headline inflation forecast to 1.5 to 2.5 percent, from 0.9 to 1.9 percent it forecast in November last year.
Growth this year would be supported by rising demand as COVID-19 pandemic restrictions ease and vaccinations continue, as well as a recovery in the tourism sector, government spending and external demand amid continued global growth, council secretary-general Danucha Pichayanan told a briefing, adding that inflation would be a key pressure this year.
As part of its “living with COVID” strategy, Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s government has gradually relaxed restrictions to boost the economy, which had the slowest growth in Southeast Asia last year. Rising price pressures — which last month exceeded the central bank’s inflation target for the first time since April last year — and the Omicron wave have raised concerns about the recovery this year.
The economy grew 1.6 percent last year, rebounding from a revised 6.2 percent contraction in 2020. Economists had forecast 1.2 percent growth last year.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP rose 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, when it fell a revised 0.9 percent, the council said.
The consumer price index rose 3.23 percent last month, above the Bank of Thailand’s 1 to 3 percent target.
The central bank, which earlier this month held its benchmark interest rate at a record low for a 14th straight meeting, said average headline inflation this year is likely to exceed its 1.7 percent forecast.
A tourism revival might help jump-start the economy after the government reopened the country’s borders in November last year. Thailand welcomed 230,497 tourists in December, the highest monthly figure since March 2020, at the start of the pandemic.
Still, the total of 427,869 foreign visitors last year was a fraction of the 40 million in 2019, when the tourism industry generated revenue of more than US$60 billion.
“The pace of Thailand’s economic recovery over the coming year will largely depend on how quickly tourists return,” Capital Economics Ltd senior Asia economist Gareth Leather said in a note. “While we expect a sustained recovery in the tourism sector to get underway this year, arrivals will still be far fewer than pre-pandemic, meaning the overall economic recovery will remain weak.”
AI REVOLUTION: The event is to take place from Wednesday to Friday at the Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center’s halls 1 and 2 and would feature more than 1,100 exhibitors Semicon Taiwan, an annual international semiconductor exhibition, would bring leaders from the world’s top technology firms to Taipei this year, the event organizer said. The CEO Summit is to feature nine global leaders from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), ASE Technology Holding Co (ASE, 日月光投控), Applied Materials Inc, Google, Samsung Electronics Co, SK Hynix Inc, Microsoft Corp, Interuniversity Microelectronic Centre and Marvell Technology Group Ltd, SEMI said in a news release last week. The top executives would delve into how semiconductors are positioned as the driving force behind global technological innovation amid the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, the organizer said. Among them,
When she was in fifth grade, Scarlett Goddard Strahan started to worry about getting wrinkles. By the time she turned 10, she and her friends were spending hours on ByteDance Ltd’s TikTok and Google’s YouTube watching influencers tout products for achieving today’s beauty aesthetic: a dewy, “glowy,” flawless complexion. Goddard Strahan developed an elaborate skin care routine with facial cleansers, mists, hydrating masks and moisturizers. One night, her skin began to burn intensely and erupted in blisters. Heavy use of adult-strength products had wreaked havoc on her skin. Months later, patches of tiny bumps remain on her face, and her cheeks turn
Former Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) chairman Mark Liu (劉德音) yesterday warned against the tendency to label stakeholders as either “pro-China” or “pro-US,” calling such rigid thinking a “trap” that could impede policy discussions. Liu, an adviser to the Cabinet’s Economic Development Committee, made the comments in his keynote speech at the committee’s first advisers’ meeting. Speaking in front of Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰), National Development Council (NDC) Minister Paul Liu (劉鏡清) and other officials, Liu urged the public to be wary of falling into the “trap” of categorizing people involved in discussions into either the “pro-China” or “pro-US” camp. Liu,
Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo (郭智輝) yesterday said Taiwan’s government plans to set up a business service company in Kyushu, Japan, to help Taiwanese companies operating there. “The company will follow the one-stop service model similar to the science parks we have in Taiwan,” Kuo said. “As each prefecture is providing different conditions, we will establish a new company providing services and helping Taiwanese companies swiftly settle in Japan.” Kuo did not specify the exact location of the planned company but said it would not be in Kumamoto, the Kyushu prefecture in which Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC, 台積電) has a
RSS