Hong Kong might only reopen in early 2024 because of its stringent COVID-19 policies, which could trigger an exodus of foreign firms and staff, and jeopardize its role as a financial hub, the territory’s European Chamber of Commerce said in a draft report.
The limited effectiveness of locally developed vaccines is forcing China to maintain tight restrictions on travel, the chamber said in the draft, which was reviewed by Reuters, but has not been made public.
The European Chamber of Commerce declined to comment on the report.
Photo: Bloomberg
The most likely scenario for Hong Kong would be that it would not reopen until China rolls out its messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine across its 1.4 billion population, which could take until late next year or early 2024, it said.
If that was the case, the chamber said there was a risk of a “cascade effect” of firms leaving Hong Kong.
“We anticipate an exodus of foreigners, probably the largest than [sic] Hong Kong has ever seen, and one of the largest in absolute terms from any city in the region in recent history,” it said.
While Hong Kong has succeeded in keeping the virus under control for much of last year, it has become one of the world’s most isolated places because of its travel restrictions and intermittent lockdowns that have accelerated a brain drain from the former British colony.
Hong Kong saw a surge of infections this month, which authorities have struggled to control.
Given the scenario, multinational firms would increasingly relocate China-focused teams to the mainland or shift their Asian regional teams to Singapore or Seoul, the chamber said.
Hong Kong could lose its appeal as an international business hub as well as its potential to contribute to China’s economy.
The departure of international talent could also undermine the territory’s “potential to maintain world-class universities,” it said.
Unlike China, Hong Kong is dependent on business travelers and imported goods.
Its role as one of the world’s main transshipment and passenger hubs has been drastically curtailed by tough flight restrictions, which mean very few people are allowed to land and hardly anyone is allowed to transit.
In contrast, the rival financial hub of Singapore has eased its coronavirus curbs including border controls.
Only about 70 percent of people in Hong Kong have been double-vaccinated, compared with 91 percent of Singapore’s eligible population.
Most of Hong Kong’s elderly people have not been vaccinated.
The chamber outlined other scenarios of “average likelihood” including the possibility of an uncontrolled outbreak in the mainland leading to Hong Kong sealing its boundary with China and reopening with the rest of the world.
Another scenario was an uncontrolled outbreak in Hong Kong, which would make any additional restrictions meaningless. This could cause up to 20,000 deaths among elderly people.
The chamber made recommendations to the government, including accelerating vaccinations and shortening quarantine from 21 days to seven to 14 days, which would please the international business community.
Foreign businesses should assume that Hong Kong would very likely be “semi-closed for international travel in the coming 12-36 months,” it said.
Stephen Garrett, a 27-year-old graduate student, always thought he would study in China, but first the country’s restrictive COVID-19 policies made it nearly impossible and now he has other concerns. The cost is one deterrent, but Garrett is more worried about restrictions on academic freedom and the personal risk of being stranded in China. He is not alone. Only about 700 American students are studying at Chinese universities, down from a peak of nearly 25,000 a decade ago, while there are nearly 300,000 Chinese students at US schools. Some young Americans are discouraged from investing their time in China by what they see
Taiwan Transport and Storage Corp (TTS, 台灣通運倉儲) yesterday unveiled its first electric tractor unit — manufactured by Volvo Trucks — in a ceremony in Taipei, and said the unit would soon be used to transport cement produced by Taiwan Cement Corp (TCC, 台灣水泥). Both TTS and TCC belong to TCC International Holdings Ltd (台泥國際集團). With the electric tractor unit, the Taipei-based cement firm would become the first in Taiwan to use electric vehicles to transport construction materials. TTS chairman Koo Kung-yi (辜公怡), Volvo Trucks vice president of sales and marketing Johan Selven, TCC president Roman Cheng (程耀輝) and Taikoo Motors Group
MAJOR DROP: CEO Tim Cook, who is visiting Hanoi, pledged the firm was committed to Vietnam after its smartphone shipments declined 9.6% annually in the first quarter Apple Inc yesterday said it would increase spending on suppliers in Vietnam, a key production hub, as CEO Tim Cook arrived in the country for a two-day visit. The iPhone maker announced the news in a statement on its Web site, but gave no details of how much it would spend or where the money would go. Cook is expected to meet programmers, content creators and students during his visit, online newspaper VnExpress reported. The visit comes as US President Joe Biden’s administration seeks to ramp up Vietnam’s role in the global tech supply chain to reduce the US’ dependence on China. Images on
New apartments in Taiwan’s major cities are getting smaller, while old apartments are increasingly occupied by older people, many of whom live alone, government data showed. The phenomenon has to do with sharpening unaffordable property prices and an aging population, property brokers said. Apartments with one bedroom that are two years old or older have gained a noticeable presence in the nation’s six special municipalities as well as Hsinchu county and city in the past five years, Evertrust Rehouse Co (永慶房產集團) found, citing data from the government’s real-price transaction platform. In Taipei, apartments with one bedroom accounted for 19 percent of deals last