Brent oil yesterday edged higher in Asia after closing at the highest in almost 13 months, as a deepening energy crisis in the US disrupted crude production and forced the shutdown of some of the nation’s biggest refineries.
Futures in London traded above US$63 a barrel after rising 1.4 percent on Monday.
Freezing weather has crippled Texas’ power system and blackouts are spreading to other states in the central US.
Photo: AFP
More than 1 million barrels per day of oil output has been halted and pipelines have declared a force majeure.
Energy Aspects Ltd estimates that 3 million barrels per day of processing capacity could be offline.
The combination of frigid temperatures and refinery closures has spurred a scramble for fuels, and is likely to lead to higher US prices for everything from gasoline to propane. The US crisis is just the latest in a series of cold snaps in the northern hemisphere that have boosted oil consumption this year.
In Europe, the North Sea oil market, which helps price more than two-thirds of the world’s crude, also saw its biggest spate of bullish activity in years on Monday.
Meanwhile, a potential refinery worker strike in Norway was averted after the SAFE union struck a deal with the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association.
Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cuts have helped the global crude benchmark rally more than 20 percent this year, as swollen global stockpiles are drawn down even as COVID-19 leads to more lockdowns.
The global oil market is “balanced,” with prices reflecting the current state of play, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Sunday.
“Global supply is getting tighter with the US cold snap here to stay for now, and there are also expectations for demand to improve,” said Yun Sung-chil, a senior commodities analyst at VI Investment Corp in Seoul.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil at US$65 per barrel “doesn’t look impossible anymore,” he said.
The rebalancing has reshaped oil’s futures curve.
Brent’s prompt timespread is US$0.61 per barrel in backwardation — a bullish market structure where near-dated prices are more expensive than later-dated ones — compared with a US$0.07 contango at the beginning of the year.
However, concerns remain over the sustainability of crude’s rally, as Brent and WTI’s 14-day relative strength indices remain well above 70 — a sign that prices could be due for a pullback.
In China, the world’s biggest oil importer, travel over the Lunar New Year holiday has been well below normal levels amid a resurgence of COVID-19 in parts of the country.
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