The IMF on Friday urged advanced economies to provide more resources to low-income countries, warning of an emerging “great divergence” in global growth, which could risk stability and trigger social unrest for years to come.
IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters that 50 percent of developing countries were at risk of falling further behind, which raised concerns about stability and social unrest.
To avert bigger problems, rich countries and international institutions should chip in more, she said.
Photo: AFP / Argentinian Presidency / Esteban Collazo
She also urged heavily indebted countries to seek debt restructuring sooner rather than later, and to boost conditions for growth.
“Last year, the main focus was on the ‘great lockdown.’ This year, we face the risk of great divergence,” Georgieva said. “We estimate that developing countries that have been for decades converging in income levels will be in a very tough place this time around.”
Setbacks for living standards in developing countries would make it much more difficult to achieve stability and security for the rest of the world, she said.
“What is the risk? Social unrest. You can call it a lost decade. It may be a lost generation,” she said.
Georgieva said that advanced economies had on average spent about 24 percent of GDP on support measures during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared with 6 percent in emerging markets and 2 percent in low-income countries.
A former top World Bank executive, Georgieva said that COVID-19 vaccination efforts were uneven, with poor countries facing “tremendous difficulties” even as official development funds were going down.
Only one country in Africa — Morocco — had begun vaccinating, she said, citing grave concerns about increased mortality in many African countries.
“We must do everything in our power to reverse this dangerous divergence,” she said, adding that developing countries could also miss out on a major shift underway in rich countries to more digital and “green” economies.
Accelerating vaccinations could add US$9 trillion to the global economy by 2025, with 60 percent of benefits going to developing countries, she said.
Georgieva said she was still working with IMF shareholders to win support for a new allocation of the IMF’s own currency, or Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), which could provide resources to poorer countries.
Former US president Donald Trump had blocked such a move, akin to a central bank printing money.
Support from the US, the IMF’s dominant shareholder, is more likely under US President Joe Biden, whose administration is open to a new allocation, sources familiar with their views said.
The Biden administration has not addressed the issue publicly.
Georgieva said that an SDR allocation of US$250 billion in 2009 had helped stabilize the global economy during the global financial crisis, but the current situation was more grave.
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