Academia Sinica yesterday raised its forecast for Taiwan’s GDP growth this year from 1.56 percent to 2.7 percent and expected the pace to accelerate to 4.24 percent next year, as the nation’s economy might continue to thrive on strong demand for high-tech products and green energy investments.
The upward revision from five months earlier made the Taipei-based think tank the most optimistic research body regarding the nation’s economic performance.
“Global economic recovery seems round the corner following the development and distribution of vaccines to curb the COVID-19 pandemic,” Academia Sinica research fellow Ray Chou (周雨田) told a media briefing in Taipei.
That would allow global trade to regain growth momentum and lend support to Taiwan’s exports, Chou said, naming advanced semiconductor technology, information and communication technology, and green energy investments as the three main growth drivers next year.
Exports might grow 3.76 percent next year, from a projected 1.27 percent gain for this year, while imports might rebound 3.05 percent, from a 3.06 percent decline, the researcher said.
Demand for remote working and schooling devices would remain strong next year, as it would take some time for people around the world to be vaccinated, Chou said.
Private investment, another key growth driver, is expected to increase 4.01 percent next year, more than doubling this year’s pace of 1.53 percent, Academia Sinica said.
Local semiconductor companies would seek to upgrade and maintain their global technology leadership, it said.
Private investment would also gain support from urban renewal projects and efforts by foreign companies to build more offshore wind farms, it said.
Consumer spending might stage a rapid comeback next year with a 4.17 percent increase, from an estimated 2.49 percent contraction for this year, Chou said, adding that vehicle sales already show signs of recovery.
Rallies in local shares and vaccine progress would help boost consumer confidence, he said.
GDP growth could exceed 5 percent next year if global recovery proceeds smoothly, Chou said.
The pandemic, US-China trade tensions and other geopolitical risks pose uncertainty to the growth trajectory, he said, adding that chilling cross-strait ties could add pressure.
The nation’s GDP picked up 3.92 percent last quarter and might rise 3.91 percent this quarter, warranting an upward revision for the full year to 2.72 percent, Academia Sinica said.
However, Chou warned of bubbles forming in the local bourse and housing prices if left unchecked.
From India to China to the US, automakers cannot make vehicles — not that no one wants any, but because a more than US$450 billion industry for semiconductors got blindsided. How did both sides end up here? Over the past two weeks, automakers across the world have bemoaned the shortage of chips. Germany’s Audi, owned by Volkswagen AG, would delay making some of its high-end vehicles because of what chief executive officer Markus Duesmann called a “massive” shortfall in an interview with the Financial Times. The firm has furloughed more than 10,000 workers and reined in production. That is a further blow
MOBILE SMART: The Dimensity 1200 is 22 percent better in terms of performance than its predecessor, and 25 percent more power-efficient, the handset chip designer said MediaTek Inc (聯發科) yesterday unveiled its premium 5G processors — the Dimensity 1200 and Dimensity 1100 — as it vies for a larger slice of the world’s rapidly growing 5G smartphone market. Manufactured using Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s (台積電) 6-nanometer process technology, the Dimensity 1200 processor performs 22 percent better than the previous generation Dimensity 1000+ processor, and is 25 percent more power-efficient, MediaTek said. Chinese smartphone brands Xiaomi Corp (小米) and Realme Mobile Telecommunications (Shenzhen) Co (銳爾覓移動通信) are to be the first adopters of the latest Dimensity chips, the companies said during a virtual media briefing. Xiaomi plans to equip its first
Answering to a reported request by Germany to help address a chip shortage in its auto industry, the Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) yesterday said that it was in talks with domestic chip suppliers. Foreign media over the weekend reported that German Minister of Economic Affairs Peter Altmaier had sent a request to Taipei to ask Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) to cooperate more closely with German automakers to provide microchips and sensors, to bridge a shortage that has emerged over the past few months. The MOEA said that it had not yet received the request and could therefore not elaborate
FOCUS ON FOUNDRIES: An analyst said that some investors would be disappointed because they were expecting a larger announcement of a partnership with TSMC Intel Corp’s incoming chief executive officer Pat Gelsinger on Thursday pledged to regain the company’s lead in chip manufacturing, countering growing calls from some investors to shed that part of its business. “I am confident that the majority of our 2023 products will be manufactured internally,” Gelsinger said. “At the same time, given the breadth of our portfolio, it’s likely that we will expand our use of external foundries for certain technologies and products.” He plans to provide more details after officially taking over the CEO role on Feb. 15, but Gelsinger was clear that Intel is sticking with its once mighty