All new vehicles sold in Japan by the mid-2030s are to be hybrid or electric as Tokyo begins to unveil concrete steps for reaching its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050, broadcaster NHK said.
The Japanese Ministry of Economic Affairs is targeting “100 percent electrification” over approximately 15 years, a move that would gradually bump gasoline-engine vehicles out of the new car market, NHK reported, citing unidentified sources.
A new vehicle market consisting of only hybrid and electric automobiles would be a significant shift, given that they only make up about 29 percent of Japan’s 5.2 million new motor vehicle registrations, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA).
While Toyota Motor Corp popularized hybrid vehicles with the Prius and the country’s automakers are among the world’s top producers in the segment, the domestic market for electrified vehicles has plateaued in the past few years.
Last year, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicle registrations fell year-on-year, JAMA data show.
“If this is indeed a Japan-wide decision and it really happens, it will definitely provide a new demand stream for power and it will be good news for utilities,” said Daine Loh, a power and renewables analyst at Fitch Solutions Inc.
However, on balance it is “unlikely to see electricity consumption rise in the mid-2030s given low real GDP growth rates and an aging population,” Loh said.
With its latest plan, Japan joins a slew of other countries seeking to reduce their carbon emissions by moving away from gasoline vehicles over the coming decades.
The UK last month said that it would end the sale of new vehicles that run only on fossil fuels by 2030.
France has also pledged to take new gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles off the market by 2040.
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga in October unveiled an ambitious goal to decarbonize Japan in his first policy speech to parliament, but few details were provided on how the country would achieve the target.
Japan’s carbon emissions have been on a downward trend, but they need to fall faster to meet the 2050 goal, according to an analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The ministry plans to set targets this month, NHK reported.
Elsewhere in Asia, China is poised to give fossil-fuel powered vehicles more time to coexist with electric vehicles.
The head of a panel advising the Chinese government on the matter said in September that the country should not set a firm timeline for phasing out of vehicles that run on fossil fuels.
The panel proposed a new-energy vehicle target of 15 to 25 percent for 2025, with this figure rising to 50 to 60 percent for 2035.
About 3.8 million electric vehicles were on the road in China at the end of last year, and that is expected to grow to 80 million by 2030.
The number of hydrogen cars is projected to hit 1 million by 2030 from about 6,000 at the end of last year.
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