Hong Kong’s banks face at least two quarters of worsening asset quality and slowing loan growth as the coronavirus outbreak hits trade and consumer banking, analysts and bankers said.
Lenders in the Asian financial hub, including HSBC Holdings PLC and Standard Chartered PLC, are seeing a drop in demand for mortgages, credit card usage and corporate loans, bankers with knowledge of the matter said.
Hong Kong banks have Asia’s largest exposure to China, which accounted for 29.4 percent of banking system assets in the first half of last year, credit ratings agency Fitch says.
Some of the banks have already started stress testing select parts of their China and Hong Kong businesses as fears grow of a pandemic of COVID-19 that originated in China late last year.
“Some of the companies in Hong Kong were already hanging from a thread after months of civil unrest and now the virus has come on top of that,” Moody’s Investors Service financial institutions group senior credit officer Sonny Hsu (徐嵩宜) said.
“The combined effect will be much more. This time, it will be more of a problem loan and credit cost issue,” Hsu said.
An extended disruption to economic activities would weaken the banks’ asset quality and profitability, and would be a credit negative, the rating agency said.
“[The] first quarter is usually a busy month for us as clients work on their plans for the year ahead. This year, the trade finance volume is down 15 percent to 30 percent in China and Hong Kong,” a senior banker at a large global bank in Hong Kong said.
The biggest impact on asset quality in Hong Kong would come from retail, hotels and property as the territory’s economy, already in recession after months of pro-democracy protests, faces increased headwinds from the virus outbreak, the banker added.
Some banks are also concerned about the likely push from Chinese authorities to extend loan repayment periods as well as make cheaper credit available, the bankers said.
“We are not thinking about origination of new business much — [the] bulk of work is focused on minimizing the hit to asset quality. It won’t be business as usual for the next two quarters at least,” a retail banker with a global bank said.
Unemployment in Hong Kong reached its highest in three years last month at 3.4 percent, while bankruptcy petitions submitted rose to 703 last month up from 665 a year ago, data showed.
HSBC, which made 40 percent of its revenue from China and Hong Kong last year, said last week it could take up to US$600 million in additional provisions against loan losses if the outbreak persists into the second half.
Bank of East Asia (BEA, 東亞銀行) on Wednesday last week said that it expected a deterioration of 10-20 basis points in credit cost, the percentage of provisioning for bad loans out of total lending, for its local business this year due to the economic downturn.
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