Asia’s manufacturing industry finished last year with a modestly brighter outlook, with fewer economies signaling contraction at factories.
Purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand last month all moved above 50, data from IHS Markit showed yesterday. Malaysia improved right to 50, the dividing line between expansion and contraction, while Indonesia stayed slightly below it.
“PMIs seem to have improved across the board in December and sentiment is likely to improve further following the positive developments on the trade front,” Singapore-based Oxford Economics India and Southeast Asia economics head Priyanka Kishore said.
The regional readings come as China’s manufacturing sector last month continued to expand output, bolstering views that the world’s second-largest economy is stabilizing.
China’s official manufacturing PMI remained at 50.2 and the sub-index of new orders for export rose into expansion for the first time since May 2018.
The Caixin Media and IHS Markit PMI showed that China’s manufacturing index edged down to 51.5 last month from 51.8 in November.
“Last year was so bad. We are going to have a cyclical recovery,” said Xia Le (夏樂), Hong Kong-based chief Asia economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA. “We can expect a cyclical recovery led by the exports sector and the manufacturing sector in the region.”
South Korea’s manufacturers — often viewed as a key barometer of global demand — enjoyed the strongest performance since April, with both output and new orders pushing into positive territory for the first time since October 2018.
India’s manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 last month from 51.2 in November, backing a view that a nascent recovery in the economy was gathering steam. The pickup in activity was boosted by new orders, which grew at the fastest pace since July.
Global manufacturing has recovered somewhat from a slump in the middle of last year, as the impact of higher tariffs waned and as signs of a nascent rebound in the electronics sector emerged, which is especially critical to Asia’s export engines.
US President Donald Trump said that he would sign the first phase of a trade deal with China on Jan. 15, sealing an agreement that sees the Asian nation raising purchases of US farm goods in exchange for lower tariffs on some of its products.
“Survey data showed that businesses anticipate 2020 to be more positive, as signaled by higher input purchasing and stockpiling,” IHS Markit economist Joe Hayes said in a release. “Key to the reversal of the negative trend seen through most of 2019 seems to be new product launches, particularly in the automotive and electronic sectors.”
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