Early South Korean trade figures for this month show monthly exports could decline by less than double-digits for the first time since May, offering another sign that the global manufacturing slump might be reaching a bottom.
Exports during the first 20 days of of the month fell 2 percent from a year earlier, the Korea Customs Service said yesterday. Shipments to China rose 5.3 percent, on course to post the first monthly gain in more than a year.
Semiconductor sales, which account for the largest share of South Korean exports, declined 17 percent, improving from more-than-20 percent declines in previous months.
Yesterday’s figures offered support to economists looking for more evidence of green shoots in the global economy after recent improvements in factory data from China to Germany and signs of progress in US-China trade talks.
The 20-day trade report is closely watched as an indicator of global demand due to its early release each month and South Korea’s key position in electronics supply chains.
“This confirms the view that exports have entered the stage of recovery,” said Park Sang-hyun, an economist for HI Investment & Securities in Seoul. “If the upturn continues, it would be a signal of improvement for not just South Korean exports, but global trade and manufacturing.”
For South Korea, a year-long drop in exports has put the economy on course for its slowest expansion in a decade.
A South Korean Ministry of Finance official last week said that the government is cautiously optimistic that an improving global economy will help fuel a recovery next year.
South Korean imports fell 0.5 percent in the first 20 days of this month from a year earlier. Exports to the US edged down 3.4 percent, while imports rose 7.9 percent. Shipments to Japan rose 6.2 percent as imports dropped at the same pace.
South Korea’s exports from Dec. 1 to 20 expanded 8.1 percent from the same period a month earlier, while imports gained 9.1 percent. Data for the full month are to be released on Wednesday next week.
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