Exports orders last month fell 2.1 percent annually and 2.7 percent from October to US$47.68 billion, ending four months of consecutive gains as concerns about trade tensions, slowing global economic growth and falling raw material prices stifled momentum, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said yesterday.
Amid global headwinds, last month’s outcome was worse than forecast, Department of Statistics Director-General Lin Lee-jen (林麗貞) told a news conference in Taipei.
At the end of last month, volatility in crude oil prices also pressured raw material prices, resulting in the first annual decline in basic metal export orders by value since the beginning of the year.
The category fell 2.7 percent from October and 5.9 percent from the same period last year to US$2.4 billion as buyers trimmed orders and braced for rising protectionism, with demand seeing the fastest decline in the US, Hong Kong and Europe.
The year-end peak season for new product launches also failed to lift export orders for information and communications technology (ICT) and electronics.
ICT export orders last month were flat from last year at US$16.25 billion, while electronics dropped 3.5 percent from the same period last year to US$12.2 billion, due to longer smartphone upgrade cycles and falling memory prices, while a massive correction in cryptocurrencies continued to depress demand for mining chips.
In the first 11 months, ICT export orders rose 5.4 percent annually to US$134.67 billion, while electronics logged a 6 percent annual rise to US$121.22 billion.
Gains in cloud computing the network equipment were partly offset by slowing demand for laptop computers, the department said.
Optoelectronics orders fell 7.5 percent last month from October and 8.6 percent annually in the first 11 months of the year to US$22.63 billion due to excess inventory and sluggish TV sales, but a small uptick in smartphone display backlight orders helped offset some of the decline, the department said, adding that the sector would continue to be challenged by a supply glut.
Businesses have also turned more pessimistic about their outlooks, with 27.6 percent expecting export orders to continue declining this month, up from 24.8 percent foreseeing a drop a month earlier, a survey by the department showed.
While the proportion of businesses hoping to increase their export orders this month inched up to 16.9 percent from 15.7 percent, the proportion of businesses aiming to maintain orders at current levels fell to 55.6 percent, from 59.5 percent, the survey showed.
The department expects export orders to fall by 4.1 to 6.1 percent this month to between US$45.5 billion and US$46.5 billion, Lin said.
In regional terms, orders from the US and Japan continued to log growth, while Chinese orders fell by a marked 8.9 percent compared with last year, Lin said.
China-bound export orders from Japan and North Korea have also fallen, possibly indicating slowing economic growth in China, she said.
While trade shocks are likely to affect exports until next year, they are part of cyclical swings, Lin said.
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