Sun, Oct 01, 2017 page15

• Climate change could help Canada expand farmland

  • By Chris Arsenault / Thomson Reuters Foundation, TORONTO
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  As global warming intensifies droughts and floods, causing crop failures in many parts of the world, Canada might see something different: a farming expansion.

  Rising temperatures could open millions of once frigid acres to the plow, officials, farmers and scientists have predicted.

  “Canada is one of the few countries where climate change may create some opportunities for growing crops in northern latitudes,” said Rod Bonnett, president of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture, a lobby group representing 200,000 farmers.

  However, determining just how much land in the world’s second-largest country could become suitable for farming as a result of climate change is not easy, Canadian Department of Agriculture and Agri-food senior official Ian Jarvis said.

  In the country’s three prairie provinces alone — vast swaths of flat land in central Canada covering an area more than twice the size of France — the amount of arable land could rise between 26 and 40 percent by 2040, Jarvis said.

  “Most of the improvements are happening in fringe areas of agricultural regions,” he said. “Canada is in a better situation than much of the rest of the world.”

  Canada is the world’s largest exporter of canola, flaxseed and pulses, government figures showed, and is one of the top wheat producers.

  Farmers hope the country of 35 million will be able to capitalize on the opportunities presented by warmer conditions — including by exporting more food to other regions hard-hit by increasing heat and crop failure.

  World agricultural production will need to rise about 50 percent by 2050 to keep pace with population growth, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

  As rising heat and more extreme weather cut harvests in some southern regions, hungry mouths across the developing world might turn to northern nations such as Canada for help, experts have predicted.

  “We are seen as one of the few countries that can provide food for a growing global population,” Bonnett said.

  Warming is expected to open new land to farming in Canada’s northern prairies; parts of the Yukon Territory near the Arctic; the Peace River region that straddles northern British Columbia and Alberta; and parts of northern Ontario, Bonnett said.

  “There is a lot more interest in taking a look at underdeveloped land in northern Ontario and Quebec because of changes in climate,” Bonnett said at his farm in northern Ontario, where he grows hay and raises cattle.

  In one zone of clay soil stretching from Cochrane, Ontario, to Abitibi County in neighboring Quebec, climate change could bring about 4.1 million hectares of new farmland — an area larger than Belgium — into production, Bonnet said.

  However, climate change alone will not make the land economically viable for agriculture, he said, adding that remote areas will need roads, irrigation systems and other infrastructure to become the next farming frontier.

  Climate change and improvements in farming technology have happened so quickly that scientific models have not been able provide solid estimates on how much new food could be produced as temperatures rise, Jarvis said.

  For instance, warming will also shift growing patterns in Canada’s existing agricultural regions, allowing some farmers to produce more lucrative crops such as corn and soybeans where they once grew barley or hay, scientists have said.

  Many farmers are now rethinking what they should plant as a result of the shifts, Bonnett said.

  One main obstacle stands in the way of Canada expanding its farmland, farmers and officials said: a potential lack of water.

  “Canada could benefit more than most from climate change, but it hinges on its ability to manage its water resources,” said Hank Venema, a researcher with the Winnipeg-based International Institute for Sustainable Development.

  Canada’s prairies, home to about 80 percent of its farmland, were devastated by the same long-term Dust Bowl drought that hit the US in the 1930s, leading to farm failures and huge losses of topsoil.

  It is a problem that could repeat itself as temperatures warm, leading to faster water losses, Venema said.

  In response to the 1930s drought, the Canadian government at that time launched an ambitious effort to plant trees, store more water in the region and rehabilitate farmland.

  Similar public works might be key to capitalizing on today’s shifting climate, Venema said.

  Alongside fears about water shortages, rising temperatures present other big risks for Canada’s farmers, including more frequent crop-damaging storms and other wild weather.

  “While there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the future of Canada’s agriculture industry, one thing is clear: We are likely to see more extreme weather events, soil erosion and higher average temperatures,” said Federated Insurance, a Canadian firm that evaluates risks for farmers.

  However, Canada is unlikely to face problems as severe as those south of the border.

  Without adaptation to the new conditions, some US midwestern and southern counties could see yields decline by more than 10 percent over the next 25 years, according to Risky Business, a research initiative chaired by former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg and former US secretary of the treasury Hank Paulson.

  “I do not think you are going to see places in the deep south where agriculture is going to be obliterated, but it may have to adapt to different crop varieties,” said Mark Robson, a professor of plant biology at Rutgers University in New Jersey.

  Northern sections of the US, including along the Atlantic coast, will see longer growing seasons as a result of climate change, Robson added. That should allow them to plant new crops, like their Canadian counterparts.

  However, insect pests and plant diseases will also move north, and farmers will need new strategies to deal with them, he said.
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