Trouble might be brewing in China’s renewable energy industry if idled wind farms are anything to go by.
The nation’s clean-energy investment binge has made it the world leader in wind, accounting for about one in every three turbines currently installed, according to the Global Wind Energy Council. In turn, Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co (金風科技), which makes the machines, has pushed past its Western rivals such as Vestas Wind Systems AS and General Electric Co.
Yet even with double the wind capacity, China still produces less electricity from turbines when compared with the US. That is because it is installing lower-quality machines using less reliable breezes and doing so more quickly than the distribution grid can take in the flows.
“The numbers are striking,” said Justin Wu (吳敬), head of Asia-Pacific for London-based Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). “They say China is building wind faster than it can be absorbed.”
From the end of 2006 to the end of last year, China’s wind capacity surged 89-fold to 139.3 gigawatts, while the US saw a sevenfold increase to 73.8 gigawatts, according to BNEF data.
However, those machines are not as efficient in cranking out electricity as the ones in the US. Last year, the US slightly edged China in wind power production, generating 185.6 terrawatt-hours compared with 185.1 terrawatt-hours, BNEF research showed. In other words, the US produced more with less.
One issue under scrutiny is turbine efficiency — a concern hinted at by foreign turbine makers trying to crack the Chinese market.
Goldwind is now the world’s biggest turbine maker by shipments, while the market share in China for Vestas has declined from about 23 percent a decade ago to about 1 percent for the last two years, according to BNEF.
“We see clear signs” of a shift from a focus on low costs to energy output and internal rate of return for turbines that can operate for 20 years, Vestas chief executive officer Anders Runevad said in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Beijing.
Wind quality is also pegged as a culprit.
Findings published earlier this year in the journal Nature Energy by a group of researchers from places such as Tsinghua University in Beijing and Harvard University in the US showed that the quality of wind flow explained part of the difference in electricity output between the US and China.
Analysts also said “curtailment” is also one of the biggest challenges. Curtailment occurs when wind generation is available, but grid operators will not accept the electricity. The reasons are complex, ranging from poor grid connections to a preference for coal-fired power, which is more predictable and reliable.
“Some policy has run ahead of other policy,” Wu said. “Policy to incentivize to build is working great, but policy to actually get the grid to uptake is falling behind.”
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