US oil futures in New York yesterday slid to the lowest in 12 years as turmoil in China’s markets pushed crude closer to US$30 a barrel.
Prices of West Texas Intermediate slid as much as 5.5 percent yesterday on concern that the economic slowdown in the world’s biggest commodity consumer is worsening.
China’s central bank reduced the onshore yuan’s fixing to the lowest since March 2011, triggering a sell-off that led to the closure of Chinese stock exchanges.
Prices of Brent oil will slump to US$30 in the next 10 days, Nomura Holdings Inc said.
UBS Group AG predicted that an oversupply would push prices even lower.
“The market trades on greed and fear, and right now fear dominates greed,” said Gordon Kwan (關榮樂), a Hong Kong-based analyst at Nomura.
FUTURES
“Commodity futures markets are always forward looking and they fear that the depreciation of the yuan foreshadows further weakness in the Chinese economy,” he said.
Oil prices capped the biggest two-year loss on record last year as OPEC effectively abandoned output limits amid a global glut.
Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for US benchmark crude, rose to a record, while nationwide stockpiles remained about 100 million barrels above the five-year average, according to US Energy Information Administration data.
West Texas Intermediate prices to be delivered next month fell as much as US$1.87 to US$32.1 per barrel — the lowest intraday level since Dec. 29, 2003 — on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
LONDON
Prices were at US$32.41 at 8:25am in London.
The contract lost 8.3 percent the previous three days to close at US$33.97 on Wednesday.
The most-traded options contract on Nymex gives holders the right to sell WTI futures for next month at US$30.
Brent prices for settlement next month fell as much as US$2.07 to US$32.16 per barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
The contract dropped 6 percent to US$34.23 on Wednesday, the lowest close since June 2004.
The European benchmark was at a premium of US$0.2 cents to West Texas Intermediate.
The global economy will sputter along this year as China’s slowdown prolongs a commodity slump, the World Bank said on Wednesday.
FORECASTS
The Washington-based development bank lowered its forecast for this year’s growth to 2.9 percent, from a 3.3 percent projection in June, according to its Global Economic Prospects report.
The People’s Bank of China yesterday reduced the yuan’s fixing by 0.51 percent to 6.5646, the weakest since March 2011 and a reminder of the August cut that sparked turmoil in global financial markets.
Trading on the CSI 300 Index was suspended after it plunged more than 7 percent.
“Clearly the economic concern is a factor, but that doesn’t really explain everything,” said Dominic Schnider, head of commodities and Asia-Pacific foreign exchange at UBS’s wealth-management unit in Hong Kong.
“There is a weak backdrop given that the market is oversupplied. If there is continued build in inventory, the market will not be pleased and if the market loses patience then the next step is a bit below [US]$30,” Schnider said.
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