South Korea’s central bank yesterday cut its economic growth forecast for the fourth time this year and left interest rates at a record low, as a lengthening export slump overshadowed a pick-up in domestic activity.
“The local economy is expected to continue its recovery phase, centered around domestic consumption,” Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol told reporters. “However, uncertainties surrounding the path to recovery remain high.”
The bank shaved its economic growth forecast for this year to 2.7 percent, from the 2.8 percent it had predicted in July.
It is the fourth reduction since the start of the year, when it had estimated 3.9 percent growth.
The bank also left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.5 percent — a decision that had been widely expected following a cut of 25 basis points in June.
Bank policymakers have slashed borrowing costs three times in the past year, citing the weak global economic outlook and sagging exports, which account for about half of South Korea’s GDP.
Shipments have shrunk every month and a slowdown in China — the country’s biggest trading partner — is expected to take a further chunk out of Asia’s fourth-largest economy. The low global oil price has kept inflation hovering below 1 percent.
“We will closely monitor factors at home and abroad including … the growth of household debt and the monetary policy of the US Fed,” the bank said.
Household debt in South Korea amounted to more than 615 trillion won (US$556 billion) as of last month, with housing loans increasing at a record pace this year.
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