Gartner Inc yesterday cut its revenue forecast for the global semiconductor industry this year to US$35.4 billion, an annual growth rate of 4 percent, citing growing inventory and changes in foreign exchange rates.
According to a Gartner statement, the market researcher also attributed its downward revision to PC replacement demand, which it said is coming to an end.
A quarter ago, the researcher said that the global semiconductor industry would see sales this year expand by 5.4 percent from the previous year.
“Concern is mounting about semiconductor revenue growth in 2015 as system suppliers start to grapple with the rapid depreciation in value of global currencies relative to the US dollar, excess inventories in the semiconductor and electronics supply chains, and the end of a PC upgrade cycle,” Gartner vice president Bryan Lewis said in a statement.
“The downward revision from last quarter’s forecast is due to these three factors combining to create a significant headwinds for the semiconductor market in 2015,” Lewis added.
Gartner’s downward revision came after Qualcomm Inc, whose chips power most of the world’s smartphones, on Wednesday forecast sales and profit for this quarter might miss estimates as customers choose rivals for key components.
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS
Also, Texas Instruments Inc, the biggest maker of analogue chips, forecast sales and profit this quarter might be below analysts’ estimates, citing weakness in communications equipment and personal electronics.
Last week, Intel Corp said first-quarter revenue was little changed at US$12.8 billion and revenue for this quarter would be US$13.2 billion, plus or minus US$500 million.
Lewis said in the statement that this year, “semiconductor growth hinges on the strength of the second-quarter bounce,”
“The second quarter is traditionally where we see strong sequential growth coming off the traditionally negative first quarter as inventory is burned off from the holidays,” he said.
“First quarter 2015 looks to have the worst sequential growth since 2009, with at least a 7 percent decline, so a strong second-quarter bounce is needed to achieve the 4 percent annual growth predicted for 2015,” Lewis added.
DRAM SECTOR
The DRAM sector could be the main driver for the whole semiconductor industry this year, growing 7.9 percent in sales year-on-year, Gartner said.
However, the researcher forecast the DRAM sector’s revenue would drop 20.2 percent next year and fall 8.4 percent in 2017.
A quarter ago, Gartner forecast that the sector would see a 30.1 percent fall in sales next year and a 30.1 percent decline in 2017.
Additional reporting by Bloomberg
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